Baltimore Orioles First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Baltimore must win 21 more games (40 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Baltimore finishes in first place with 40 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Baltimore        40	122	0.247	0.00
Toronto          40	122	0.247	0.00
New York         40	122	0.247	0.00
Boston           40	122	0.247	0.00
Tampa Bay        39	123	0.241	1.00

Tie breakers
Baltimore wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6
Baltimore wins the series with New York 7 games to 6
Baltimore wins the series with Toronto 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        19	11	132	0.633	0.0
New York         20	12	130	0.625	0.0
Boston           18	13	131	0.581	1.5
Toronto          15	17	130	0.469	5.0
Tampa Bay        14	18	130	0.438	6.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 4 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 6.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Baltimore currently has 2 win(s) against New York and 1 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 5 additional game(s) against New York and loses 5.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 4 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 9.
Baltimore loses the series 4 games to 9.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 6.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against New York and loses 13.
Boston loses the series 0 games to 13.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 13 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 13 games to 0.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 10.
Boston loses the series 3 games to 10.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 1 loss(es).
New York wins 1 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 9.
New York loses the series 3 games to 10.
New York wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 89.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
New York loses the series 3 games to 10.
New York wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 89.

Tampa Bay currently has 2 win(s) against Toronto and 2 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 7 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

# Baltimore Orioles' magic number
# Baltimore's magic number
# Orioles' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race