Chicago Cubs First-Place Clinch Scenario

Chicago's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Milwaukee) is 54 + 68 - 55 + 1 = 68.
Chicago's first-place clinch number is 64.
Chicago must win 64 more games (119 total) to clinch first place.

If Chicago wins 64 more games, their final win total will be at least 119.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Chicago wins 64 of their remaining 68 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Chicago' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Chicago if Chicago wins 64 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to ChicagoCubs, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Chicago	Maximum W
Milwaukee        54	40	68	       8 - 4 = 4	118
St. Louis        50	45	67	       6 - 4 = 2	115
Cincinnati       48	47	67	       7 - 4 = 3	112
Pittsburgh       38	57	67	       6 - 4 = 2	103

The table above shows that if Chicago wins 64 more games (119 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Chicago's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 64, consider the following scenario in which Chicago wins 63 more games (118 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Milwaukee        119	43	0.735	0.00
Chicago          118	44	0.728	1.00
Cincinnati       74	88	0.457	45.00
St. Louis        72	90	0.444	47.00
Pittsburgh       64	98	0.395	55.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Chicago          55	39	68	0.585	0.0
Milwaukee        54	40	68	0.574	1.0
St. Louis        50	45	67	0.526	5.5
Cincinnati       48	47	67	0.505	7.5
Pittsburgh       38	57	67	0.400	17.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Chicago currently has 4 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 7 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 5 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 10 games to 3

Cincinnati currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 1.
  Cincinnati wins the series 10 games to 3

Milwaukee currently has 2 wins against Chicago and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 5 additional games against Chicago and loses 3.
  Milwaukee wins the series 7 games to 6

Milwaukee currently has 5 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 11 games to 2

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

St. Louis currently has 4 wins against Cincinnati and 3 losses.
  St. Louis wins 6 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 10 games to 3

St. Louis currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 5 losses.
  St. Louis wins 4 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 8 games to 5

Chicago wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Cincinnati wins 20 games agains teams outside the division and loses 21.
Milwaukee wins 42 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins 25 games agains teams outside the division and loses 19.
St. Louis wins 12 games agains teams outside the division and loses 33.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Chicago Cubs' magic number
# Chicago's magic number
# Cubs' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race