Houston Astros First-Place Clinch Scenario

Houston's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Seattle) is 44 + 77 - 51 + 1 = 71.
Houston's first-place clinch number is also 71.
Houston must win 71 more games (122 total) to clinch first place.

If Houston wins 71 more games, their final win total will be at least 122.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Houston wins 71 of their remaining 77 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Houston' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Houston if Houston wins 71 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Houston, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Houston	Maximum W
Seattle          44	41	77	               0	121
Los Angeles      42	42	78	       7 - 6 = 1	119
Texas            42	44	76	       9 - 6 = 3	115
Oakland          36	52	74	       7 - 6 = 1	109

The table above shows that if Houston wins 71 more games (122 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Houston's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 71, consider the following scenario in which Houston wins 70 more games (121 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Seattle          121	41	0.747	0.00
Houston          121	41	0.747	0.00
Los Angeles      61	101	0.377	60.00
Oakland          45	117	0.278	76.00
Texas            45	117	0.278	76.00

Tie breakers
Seattle wins the season series with Houston 9 games to 4.

Oakland wins the season series with Texas 11 games to 2.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Houston          51	34	77	0.600	0.0
Seattle          44	41	77	0.518	7.0
Los Angeles      42	42	78	0.500	8.5
Texas            42	44	76	0.488	9.5
Oakland          36	52	74	0.409	16.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Houston currently has 4 wins against Los Angeles and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 7 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 11 games to 2

Houston currently has 4 wins against Oakland and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 7 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 11 games to 2

Houston currently has 2 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 9 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 11 games to 2

Los Angeles currently has 7 wins against Oakland and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 6 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Texas and 3 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 10 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 10 games to 3

Oakland currently has 5 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Oakland wins 6 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Oakland wins the series 11 games to 2

Seattle currently has 3 wins against Houston and 4 losses.
  Seattle wins 6 additional games against Houston and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 9 games to 4

Seattle currently has 3 wins against Los Angeles and 2 losses.
  Seattle wins 8 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 11 games to 2

Seattle currently has 4 wins against Oakland and 3 losses.
  Seattle wins 6 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 10 games to 3

Seattle currently has 7 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Seattle wins 4 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 11 games to 2

Houston wins 47 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Los Angeles wins 3 games agains teams outside the division and loses 44.
Oakland wins 3 games agains teams outside the division and loses 46.
Seattle wins 53 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Texas wins 3 games agains teams outside the division and loses 44.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Houston Astros' magic number
# Houston's magic number
# Astros' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race