Houston Astros First-Place Clinch Scenario

Houston's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Seattle) is 47 + 71 - 45 + 1 = 74.
Houston's first-place clinch number is 69.
Houston must win 69 more games (114 total) to clinch first place.

If Houston wins 69 more games, their final win total will be at least 114.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Houston wins all 69 of their remaining games.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Houston' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Houston if Houston wins 69 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Houston, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Houston	Maximum W
Seattle          47	44	71	       5 - 0 = 5	113
Texas            45	45	72	       6 - 0 = 6	111
Oakland          41	49	72	       7 - 0 = 7	106
LAAngels         36	55	71	       6 - 0 = 6	101

The table above shows that if Houston wins 69 more games (114 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Houston's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 69, consider the following scenario in which Houston wins 68 more games (113 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Seattle          113	49	0.698	0.00
Houston          113	49	0.698	0.00
Texas            72	90	0.444	41.00
Oakland          64	98	0.395	49.00
LAAngels         60	102	0.370	53.00

Tie breakers
Seattle wins the season series with Houston 8 games to 5.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Seattle          47	44	71	0.516	0.0
Texas            45	45	72	0.500	1.5
Houston          45	48	69	0.484	3.0
Oakland          41	49	72	0.456	5.5
LAAngels         36	55	71	0.396	11.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Houston currently has 3 wins against LAAngels and 4 losses.
  Houston wins 6 additional games against LAAngels and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 9 games to 4

Houston currently has 3 wins against Oakland and 3 losses.
  Houston wins 7 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 10 games to 3

Houston currently has 5 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 6 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 11 games to 2

Oakland currently has 6 wins against LAAngels and 5 losses.
  Oakland wins 2 additional games against LAAngels and loses 0.
  Oakland wins the series 8 games to 5

Seattle currently has 7 wins against Houston and 1 losses.
  Seattle wins 1 additional games against Houston and loses 4.
  Seattle wins the series 8 games to 5

Seattle currently has 4 wins against LAAngels and 2 losses.
  Seattle wins 7 additional games against LAAngels and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 11 games to 2

Seattle currently has 4 wins against Oakland and 2 losses.
  Seattle wins 7 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 11 games to 2

Seattle currently has 2 wins against Texas and 4 losses.
  Seattle wins 7 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 9 games to 4

Texas currently has 0 wins against LAAngels and 3 losses.
  Texas wins 10 additional games against LAAngels and loses 0.
  Texas wins the series 10 games to 3

Texas currently has 3 wins against Oakland and 4 losses.
  Texas wins 6 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Texas wins the series 9 games to 4

Houston wins 45 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
LAAngels wins 24 games agains teams outside the division and loses 22.
Oakland wins 21 games agains teams outside the division and loses 29.
Seattle wins 44 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Texas wins 11 games agains teams outside the division and loses 32.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Houston Astros' magic number
# Houston's magic number
# Astros' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race