Miami Marlins First-Place Clinch Scenario

Miami's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Atlanta) is 6 + 154 - 5 + 1 = 156.
Miami's first-place clinch number is 149.
Miami must win 149 more games (154 total) to clinch first place.

If Miami wins 149 more games, their final win total will be at least 154.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Miami wins 149 of their remaining 155 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Miami' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Miami if Miami wins 149 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Miami, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Miami 	Maximum W
Atlanta          6	2	154	      13 - 6 = 7	153
Philadelphia     4	3	155	      13 - 6 = 7	152
New York         4	4	154	      13 - 6 = 7	151
Washington       3	4	155	      13 - 6 = 7	151

The table above shows that if Miami wins 149 more games (154 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Miami's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 149, consider the following scenario in which Miami wins 148 more games (153 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Atlanta          154	8	0.951	0.00
Miami            153	9	0.944	1.00
New York         51	111	0.315	103.00
Philadelphia     41	121	0.253	113.00
Washington       14	148	0.086	140.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          6	2	154	0.750	0.0
Miami            5	2	155	0.714	0.5
Philadelphia     4	3	155	0.571	1.5
New York         4	4	154	0.500	2.0
Washington       3	4	155	0.429	2.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Miami and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 7 additional games against Miami and loses 6.
  Atlanta wins the series 7 games to 6

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 0 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 5 additional games against Washington and loses 5.
  Philadelphia wins the series 7 games to 6

Atlanta wins 102 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Miami wins 103 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 21 games agains teams outside the division and loses 81.
Philadelphia wins 32 games agains teams outside the division and loses 74.
Washington wins 6 games agains teams outside the division and loses 100.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Miami Marlins' magic number
# Miami's magic number
# Marlins' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race