Milwaukee Brewers First-Place Clinch Scenario

Milwaukee's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Chicago) is 54 + 70 - 53 + 1 = 72.
Milwaukee's first-place clinch number is 66.
Milwaukee must win 66 more games (119 total) to clinch first place.

If Milwaukee wins 66 more games, their final win total will be at least 119.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Milwaukee wins 66 of their remaining 69 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Milwaukee' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Milwaukee if Milwaukee wins 66 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Milwaukee, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Milwaukee	Maximum W
Chicago          54	38	70	       8 - 3 = 5	119 *See tie-breaking notes below.
St. Louis        49	44	69	       6 - 3 = 3	115
Cincinnati       47	46	69	       6 - 3 = 3	113
Pittsburgh       38	56	68	       6 - 3 = 3	103

Tie-breakers:
Milwaukee has won 2 game(s) against Chicago and lost 3.
There are 8 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Milwaukee wins 2 + 5 = 7 games against Chicago and loses 3 + 3 = 6.

The table above shows that if Milwaukee wins 66 more games (119 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Milwaukee's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 66, consider the following scenario in which Milwaukee wins 65 more games (118 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Chicago          118	44	0.728	0.00
Milwaukee        118	44	0.728	0.00
Cincinnati       77	85	0.475	41.00
St. Louis        67	95	0.414	51.00
Pittsburgh       49	113	0.302	69.00

Tie breakers
Chicago wins the season series with Milwaukee 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Chicago          54	38	70	0.587	0.0
Milwaukee        53	40	69	0.570	1.5
St. Louis        49	44	69	0.527	5.5
Cincinnati       47	46	69	0.505	7.5
Pittsburgh       38	56	68	0.404	17.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Chicago currently has 4 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 7 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 3 wins against Milwaukee and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 4 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 4.
  Chicago wins the series 7 games to 6

Chicago currently has 5 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 10 games to 3

Cincinnati currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 7 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 11 games to 2

Cincinnati currently has 3 wins against St. Louis and 4 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 9 games to 4

Milwaukee currently has 5 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 11 games to 2

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

St. Louis currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 5 losses.
  St. Louis wins 3 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 1.
  St. Louis wins the series 7 games to 6

Chicago wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 2.
Cincinnati wins 17 games agains teams outside the division and loses 26.
Milwaukee wins 43 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins 10 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
St. Louis wins 15 games agains teams outside the division and loses 32.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Milwaukee Brewers' magic number
# Milwaukee's magic number
# Brewers' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race