New York Yankees First-Place Clinch Scenario

New York's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Toronto) is 55 + 66 - 53 + 1 = 69.
New York's first-place clinch number is 65.
New York must win 65 more games (118 total) to clinch first place.

If New York wins 65 more games, their final win total will be at least 118.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if New York wins 65 of their remaining 66 games and loses the other 1.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to New York' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to New York if New York wins 65 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to NYYankees, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to New York	Maximum W
Toronto          55	41	66	       6 - 1 = 5	116
Boston           53	45	64	       7 - 1 = 6	111
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	       6 - 1 = 5	110
Baltimore        43	52	67	       7 - 1 = 6	104

The table above shows that if New York wins 65 more games (118 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that New York's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 65, consider the following scenario in which New York wins 64 more games (117 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          117	45	0.722	0.00
New York         117	45	0.722	0.00
Boston           95	67	0.586	22.00
Baltimore        77	85	0.475	40.00
Tampa Bay        62	100	0.383	55.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the season series with New York 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          55	41	66	0.573	0.0
New York         53	43	66	0.552	2.0
Boston           53	45	64	0.541	3.0
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	0.515	5.5
Baltimore        43	52	67	0.453	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Boston and 4 losses.
  Baltimore wins 6 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4

Baltimore currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

Boston currently has 8 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Boston wins 3 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

New York currently has 1 wins against Boston and 5 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 7 wins against Boston and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 3 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 5 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 2 additional games against New York and loses 4.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 1 wins against Tampa Bay and 5 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 8 games to 5

Baltimore wins 22 games agains teams outside the division and loses 19.
Boston wins 39 games agains teams outside the division and loses 6.
New York wins 40 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 12 games agains teams outside the division and loses 31.
Toronto wins 43 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# New York Yankees' magic number
# New York's magic number
# Yankees' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race