Philadelphia Phillies First-Place Clinch Scenario

Philadelphia's traditional magic number (relative to second-place New York) is 48 + 77 - 49 + 1 = 77.
Philadelphia's first-place clinch number is 74.
Philadelphia must win 74 more games (123 total) to clinch first place.

If Philadelphia wins 74 more games, their final win total will be at least 123.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Philadelphia wins 74 of their remaining 78 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Philadelphia' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Philadelphia if Philadelphia wins 74 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Philadelphia, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Philadelphia	Maximum W
New York         48	37	77	       7 - 4 = 3	122
Atlanta          38	45	79	               0	117
Miami            37	45	80	       6 - 4 = 2	115
Washington       35	49	78	       7 - 4 = 3	110

The table above shows that if Philadelphia wins 74 more games (123 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Philadelphia's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 74, consider the following scenario in which Philadelphia wins 73 more games (122 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         122	40	0.753	0.00
Philadelphia     122	40	0.753	0.00
Atlanta          88	74	0.543	34.00
Miami            74	88	0.457	48.00
Washington       56	106	0.346	66.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the season series with Philadelphia 9 games to 4.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Philadelphia     49	35	78	0.583	0.0
New York         48	37	77	0.565	1.5
Atlanta          38	45	79	0.458	10.5
Miami            37	45	80	0.451	11.0
Washington       35	49	78	0.417	14.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 2 wins against Miami and 3 losses.
  Atlanta wins 5 additional games against Miami and loses 3.
  Atlanta wins the series 7 games to 6

Miami currently has 5 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Miami wins 7 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 12 games to 1

New York currently has 2 wins against Atlanta and 5 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 4 wins against Miami and 2 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 4 wins against Philadelphia and 2 losses.
  New York wins 5 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 2.
  New York wins the series 9 games to 4

New York currently has 5 wins against Washington and 2 losses.
  New York wins 5 additional games against Washington and loses 1.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Philadelphia currently has 5 wins against Atlanta and 4 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 4 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 9 games to 4

Philadelphia currently has 5 wins against Miami and 2 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 6 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 11 games to 2

Philadelphia currently has 4 wins against Washington and 2 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 7 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 11 games to 2

Washington currently has 3 wins against Atlanta and 3 losses.
  Washington wins 7 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  Washington wins the series 10 games to 3

Atlanta wins 45 games agains teams outside the division and loses 9.
Miami wins 27 games agains teams outside the division and loses 25.
New York wins 51 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Philadelphia wins 54 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Washington wins 13 games agains teams outside the division and loses 38.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Philadelphia Phillies' magic number
# Philadelphia's magic number
# Phillies' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race