Philadelphia Phillies First-Place Clinch Scenario

Philadelphia's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Atlanta) is 20 + 133 - 21 + 1 = 133.
Philadelphia's first-place clinch number is 126.
Philadelphia must win 126 more games (147 total) to clinch first place.

If Philadelphia wins 126 more games, their final win total will be at least 147.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Philadelphia wins 126 of their remaining 130 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Philadelphia' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Philadelphia if Philadelphia wins 126 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Philadelphia, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Philadelphia	Maximum W
Atlanta          20	9	133	      10 - 4 = 6	147 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Washington       15	15	132	      10 - 4 = 6	141
New York         15	15	132	      13 - 4 = 9	138
Miami            8	24	130	      13 - 4 = 9	129

Tie-breakers:
Philadelphia has won 1 game(s) against Atlanta and lost 2.
There are 10 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Philadelphia wins 1 + 6 = 7 games against Atlanta and loses 2 + 4 = 6.

The table above shows that if Philadelphia wins 126 more games (147 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Philadelphia's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 126, consider the following scenario in which Philadelphia wins 125 more games (146 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Atlanta          146	16	0.901	0.00
Philadelphia     146	16	0.901	0.00
Washington       61	101	0.377	85.00
Miami            61	101	0.377	85.00
New York         58	104	0.358	88.00

Tie breakers
Atlanta wins the season series with Philadelphia 7 games to 6.

Washington wins the season series with Miami 13 games to 0.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          20	9	133	0.690	0.0
Philadelphia     21	11	130	0.656	0.5
New York         15	15	132	0.500	5.5
Washington       15	15	132	0.500	5.5
Miami            8	24	130	0.250	13.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 5 wins against Miami and 1 losses.
  Atlanta wins 7 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta currently has 1 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Atlanta wins 8 additional games against New York and loses 2.
  Atlanta wins the series 9 games to 4

Atlanta currently has 2 wins against Philadelphia and 1 losses.
  Atlanta wins 5 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 5.
  Atlanta wins the series 7 games to 6

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Miami and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 0 wins against Miami and 0 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 13 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Washington currently has 4 wins against Miami and 0 losses.
  Washington wins 9 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Washington wins the series 13 games to 0

Washington currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Washington wins 12 additional games against New York and loses 1.
  Washington wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta wins 93 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Miami wins 53 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
New York wins 27 games agains teams outside the division and loses 56.
Philadelphia wins 84 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Washington wins 25 games agains teams outside the division and loses 62.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Philadelphia Phillies' magic number
# Philadelphia's magic number
# Phillies' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race