San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Los Angeles) is 20 + 129 - 16 + 1 = 134.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 127.
San Diego must win 127 more games (143 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 127 more games, their final win total will be at least 143.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins 127 of their remaining 128 games and loses the other 1.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 127 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Los Angeles      20	13	129	       8 - 1 = 7	142
San Francisco    14	17	131	       6 - 1 = 5	140
Arizona          14	18	130	     13 - 1 = 12	132
Colorado         7	23	132	       9 - 1 = 8	131

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 127 more games (143 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 127, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 126 more games (142 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      143	19	0.883	0.00
San Diego        142	20	0.877	1.00
Arizona          100	62	0.617	43.00
Colorado         99	63	0.611	44.00
San Francisco    98	64	0.605	45.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      20	13	129	0.606	0.0
San Diego        16	18	128	0.471	4.5
San Francisco    14	17	131	0.452	5.0
Arizona          14	18	130	0.438	5.5
Colorado         7	23	132	0.233	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Arizona currently has 5 wins against Colorado and 2 losses.
  Arizona wins 3 additional games against Colorado and loses 3.
  Arizona wins the series 8 games to 5

Arizona currently has 2 wins against San Francisco and 2 losses.
  Arizona wins 5 additional games against San Francisco and loses 4.
  Arizona wins the series 7 games to 6

Colorado currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 8 additional games against San Francisco and loses 5.
  Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5

Los Angeles currently has 2 wins against Arizona and 1 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 10 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 12 games to 1

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 13 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 3 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 10 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 2 wins against Colorado and 2 losses.
  San Diego wins 9 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 11 games to 2

San Diego currently has 3 wins against Los Angeles and 2 losses.
  San Diego wins 6 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 2.
  San Diego wins the series 9 games to 4

San Diego currently has 3 wins against San Francisco and 4 losses.
  San Diego wins 6 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 9 games to 4

Arizona wins 78 games agains teams outside the division and loses 14.
Colorado wins 81 games agains teams outside the division and loses 10.
Los Angeles wins 88 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Diego wins 92 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 75 games agains teams outside the division and loses 18.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race