San Diego Padres First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
San Diego must win 18 more games (34 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which San Diego finishes in first place with 34 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Diego        34	128	0.210	0.00
Colorado         34	128	0.210	0.00
San Francisco    34	128	0.210	0.00
Los Angeles      34	128	0.210	0.00
Arizona          33	129	0.204	1.00

Tie breakers
San Diego wins the series with Colorado 10 games to 3
San Diego wins the series with Los Angeles 8 games to 5
San Diego wins the series with San Francisco 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      20	13	129	0.606	0.0
San Diego        16	18	128	0.471	4.5
San Francisco    14	17	131	0.452	5.0
Arizona          14	18	130	0.438	5.5
Colorado         7	23	132	0.233	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Arizona currently has 5 win(s) against Colorado and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 2 additional game(s) against Colorado and loses 4.
Arizona wins the series 7 games to 6.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 92.

Arizona currently has 1 win(s) against Los Angeles and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 10.
Arizona loses the series 1 games to 12.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 92.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against San Diego and 0 loss(es).
Arizona wins 12 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 1.
Arizona wins the series 12 games to 1.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 92.

Arizona currently has 2 win(s) against San Francisco and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 5 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 4.
Arizona wins the series 7 games to 6.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 92.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 13 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

Colorado currently has 2 win(s) against San Diego and 2 loss(es).
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 8.
Colorado loses the series 3 games to 10.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 8 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 5.
Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

Los Angeles currently has 2 win(s) against San Diego and 3 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 3 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 5.
Los Angeles loses the series 5 games to 8.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 88.

Los Angeles currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 1 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 9.
Los Angeles loses the series 4 games to 9.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 88.

San Diego currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 4 loss(es).
San Diego wins 4 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 2.
San Diego wins the series 7 games to 6.
San Diego wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 92.

# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race