Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 20 + 130 - 14 + 1 = 137.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 128.
Tampa Bay must win 128 more games (142 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 128 more games, their final win total will be at least 142.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 128 of their remaining 130 games and loses the other 2.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 128 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
New York         20	12	130	      10 - 2 = 8	142 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Baltimore        19	11	132	     13 - 2 = 11	140
Boston           18	13	131	     13 - 2 = 11	138
Toronto          15	17	130	       9 - 2 = 7	138

Tie-breakers:
Tampa Bay has won 1 game(s) against New York and lost 2.
There are 10 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Tampa Bay wins 1 + 8 = 9 games against New York and loses 2 + 2 = 4.

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 128 more games (142 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 128, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 127 more games (141 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         142	20	0.877	0.00
Tampa Bay        141	21	0.870	1.00
Boston           111	51	0.685	31.00
Baltimore        78	84	0.481	64.00
Toronto          73	89	0.451	69.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        19	11	132	0.633	0.0
New York         20	12	130	0.625	0.0
Boston           18	13	131	0.581	1.5
Toronto          15	17	130	0.469	5.0
Tampa Bay        14	18	130	0.438	6.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Boston currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Boston wins 10 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 10 games to 3

Boston currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 1 wins against Baltimore and 2 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 1 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 8 additional games against New York and loses 2.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 2 wins against Toronto and 2 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 9 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 11 games to 2

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore wins 59 games agains teams outside the division and loses 27.
Boston wins 70 games agains teams outside the division and loses 12.
New York wins 90 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 84 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Toronto wins 45 games agains teams outside the division and loses 43.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race