Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to second-place New York) is 35 + 104 - 35 + 1 = 105.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 102.
Tampa Bay must win 102 more games (137 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 102 more games, their final win total will be at least 137.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 102 of their remaining 107 games and loses the other 5.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 102 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
New York         35	23	104	       8 - 5 = 3	136
Toronto          29	30	103	       7 - 5 = 2	130
Baltimore        27	32	103	       7 - 5 = 2	128
Boston           24	33	105	      10 - 5 = 5	124

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 102 more games (137 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 102, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 101 more games (136 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         137	25	0.846	0.00
Tampa Bay        136	26	0.840	1.00
Baltimore        71	91	0.438	66.00
Boston           59	103	0.364	78.00
Toronto          39	123	0.241	98.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Tampa Bay        35	20	107	0.636	0.0
New York         35	23	104	0.603	1.5
Toronto          29	30	103	0.492	8.0
Baltimore        27	32	103	0.458	10.0
Boston           24	33	105	0.421	12.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Baltimore wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Toronto and 2 losses.
  Baltimore wins 10 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2

Boston currently has 1 wins against Toronto and 2 losses.
  Boston wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 3.
  Boston wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 5 wins against Baltimore and 2 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 3 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 1 wins against Tampa Bay and 4 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

New York currently has 2 wins against Toronto and 2 losses.
  New York wins 9 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

Tampa Bay currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 10 games to 3

Tampa Bay currently has 2 wins against Boston and 1 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1

Tampa Bay currently has 5 wins against Toronto and 1 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1

Baltimore wins 24 games agains teams outside the division and loses 46.
Boston wins 28 games agains teams outside the division and loses 37.
New York wins 71 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 75 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 7 games agains teams outside the division and loses 60.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race