Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Toronto) is 55 + 66 - 50 + 1 = 72.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 65.
Tampa Bay must win 65 more games (115 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 65 more games, their final win total will be at least 115.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins all 65 of their remaining games.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 65 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
Boston           53	45	64	       3 - 0 = 3	114
Toronto          55	41	66	       7 - 0 = 7	114
New York         53	43	66	       6 - 0 = 6	113
Baltimore        43	52	67	       6 - 0 = 6	104

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 65 more games (115 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 65, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 64 more games (114 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Boston           114	48	0.704	0.00
Tampa Bay        114	48	0.704	0.00
Toronto          92	70	0.568	22.00
Baltimore        89	73	0.549	25.00
New York         70	92	0.432	44.00

Tie breakers
Boston wins the season series with Tampa Bay 9 games to 4.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          55	41	66	0.573	0.0
New York         53	43	66	0.552	2.0
Boston           53	45	64	0.541	3.0
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	0.515	5.5
Baltimore        43	52	67	0.453	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against New York and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 6 additional games against Toronto and loses 1.
  Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4

Boston currently has 4 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Boston wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 10 games to 3

Boston currently has 5 wins against New York and 1 losses.
  Boston wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 12 games to 1

Boston currently has 8 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Boston wins 1 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
  Boston wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 4 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 3 wins against New York and 4 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 5 wins against Toronto and 1 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1

Toronto currently has 7 wins against Boston and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 0 additional games against Boston and loses 3.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 5 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore wins 33 games agains teams outside the division and loses 8.
Boston wins 44 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
New York wins 17 games agains teams outside the division and loses 23.
Tampa Bay wins 43 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 30 games agains teams outside the division and loses 13.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race