Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Toronto's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Boston) is 53 + 64 - 55 + 1 = 63.
Toronto's first-place clinch number is 62.
Toronto must win 62 more games (117 total) to clinch first place.

If Toronto wins 62 more games, their final win total will be at least 117.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Toronto wins 62 of their remaining 66 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Toronto' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Toronto if Toronto wins 62 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Toronto, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Toronto	Maximum W
Boston           53	45	64	               0	117 *See tie-breaking notes below.
New York         53	43	66	       6 - 4 = 2	117 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	       7 - 4 = 3	112
Baltimore        43	52	67	       7 - 4 = 3	107

Tie-breakers:
Toronto has won 7 game(s) against Boston and lost 3.
There are 3 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Toronto wins 7 + -1 = 6 games against Boston and loses 3 + 4 = 7.
Toronto has won 5 game(s) against New York and lost 2.
There are 6 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Toronto wins 5 + 2 = 7 games against New York and loses 2 + 4 = 6.

The table above shows that if Toronto wins 62 more games (117 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Toronto's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 62, consider the following scenario in which Toronto wins 61 more games (116 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Boston           117	45	0.722	0.00
Toronto          116	46	0.716	1.00
Baltimore        62	100	0.383	55.00
New York         62	100	0.383	55.00
Tampa Bay        53	109	0.327	64.00

Tie breakers
Baltimore wins the season series with New York 10 games to 3.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          55	41	66	0.573	0.0
New York         53	43	66	0.552	2.0
Boston           53	45	64	0.541	3.0
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	0.515	5.5
Baltimore        43	52	67	0.453	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against New York and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

Baltimore currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

Boston currently has 4 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Boston wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 10 games to 3

Boston currently has 5 wins against New York and 1 losses.
  Boston wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 12 games to 1

Boston currently has 8 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Boston wins 3 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 7 wins against Boston and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 0 additional games against Boston and loses 3.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 5 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 11 games to 2

Toronto currently has 1 wins against Tampa Bay and 5 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 8 games to 5

Baltimore wins 6 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
Boston wins 45 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 3 games agains teams outside the division and loses 37.
Tampa Bay wins 3 games agains teams outside the division and loses 40.
Toronto wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 2.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race