Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 25 more games (40 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 40 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          40	122	0.247	0.00
Boston           40	122	0.247	0.00
Baltimore        39	123	0.241	1.00
New York         39	123	0.241	1.00
Tampa Bay        39	123	0.241	1.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        19	11	132	0.633	0.0
New York         20	12	130	0.625	0.0
Boston           18	13	131	0.581	1.5
Toronto          15	17	130	0.469	5.0
Tampa Bay        14	18	130	0.438	6.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 10 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 86.

Baltimore currently has 2 win(s) against New York and 1 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against New York and loses 10.
Baltimore loses the series 2 games to 11.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 86.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 10 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 86.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 13.
Baltimore loses the series 0 games to 13.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 86.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 6 additional game(s) against New York and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 10 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
Boston wins the series 10 games to 3.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 1 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 10.
New York loses the series 2 games to 11.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 2 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 5.
New York loses the series 5 games to 8.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

Tampa Bay currently has 2 win(s) against Toronto and 2 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 9 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins the series 11 games to 2.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race