Houston Astros First-Place Clinch Scenario

Houston's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Seattle) is 28 + 113 - 26 + 1 = 116.
Houston's first-place clinch number is 109.
Houston must win 109 more games (135 total) to clinch first place.

If Houston wins 109 more games, their final win total will be at least 135.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Houston wins 109 of their remaining 112 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Houston' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Houston if Houston wins 109 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Houston, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Houston	Maximum W
Seattle          28	21	113	       9 - 3 = 6	135 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Los Angeles      24	25	113	      10 - 3 = 7	130
Texas            25	26	111	       9 - 3 = 6	130
Oakland          22	29	111	     13 - 3 = 10	123

Tie-breakers:
Houston has won 2 game(s) against Seattle and lost 2.
There are 9 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Houston wins 2 + 6 = 8 games against Seattle and loses 2 + 3 = 5.

The table above shows that if Houston wins 109 more games (135 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Houston's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 109, consider the following scenario in which Houston wins 108 more games (134 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Seattle          135	27	0.833	0.00
Houston          134	28	0.827	1.00
Los Angeles      69	93	0.426	66.00
Texas            63	99	0.389	72.00
Oakland          62	100	0.383	73.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Seattle          28	21	113	0.571	0.0
Houston          26	24	112	0.520	2.5
Texas            25	26	111	0.490	4.0
Los Angeles      24	25	113	0.490	4.0
Oakland          22	29	111	0.431	7.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Houston currently has 2 wins against Los Angeles and 1 losses.
  Houston wins 10 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 12 games to 1

Houston currently has 0 wins against Oakland and 0 losses.
  Houston wins 13 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 13 games to 0

Houston currently has 2 wins against Seattle and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 5 additional games against Seattle and loses 4.
  Houston wins the series 7 games to 6

Houston currently has 2 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Houston wins 9 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 11 games to 2

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Texas and 3 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 7 additional games against Texas and loses 3.
  Los Angeles wins the series 7 games to 6

Oakland currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 4 losses.
  Oakland wins 9 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Oakland wins the series 9 games to 4

Oakland currently has 5 wins against Texas and 2 losses.
  Oakland wins 5 additional games against Texas and loses 1.
  Oakland wins the series 10 games to 3

Seattle currently has 2 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Seattle wins 11 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 13 games to 0

Seattle currently has 4 wins against Oakland and 3 losses.
  Seattle wins 5 additional games against Oakland and loses 1.
  Seattle wins the series 9 games to 4

Seattle currently has 5 wins against Texas and 1 losses.
  Seattle wins 7 additional games against Texas and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 12 games to 1

Houston wins 71 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Los Angeles wins 38 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
Oakland wins 25 games agains teams outside the division and loses 52.
Seattle wins 80 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Texas wins 34 games agains teams outside the division and loses 45.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Houston Astros' magic number
# Houston's magic number
# Astros' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race