San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Los Angeles) is 31 + 112 - 27 + 1 = 117.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 109.
San Diego must win 109 more games (136 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 109 more games, their final win total will be at least 136.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins 109 of their remaining 114 games and loses the other 5.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 109 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Los Angeles      31	19	112	      13 - 5 = 8	135
San Francisco    29	21	112	      11 - 5 = 6	135
Arizona          26	24	112	      13 - 5 = 8	130
Colorado         8	42	112	       7 - 5 = 2	118

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 109 more games (136 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 109, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 108 more games (135 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Francisco    136	26	0.840	0.00
San Diego        135	27	0.833	1.00
Arizona          84	78	0.519	52.00
Los Angeles      83	79	0.512	53.00
Colorado         78	84	0.481	58.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      31	19	112	0.620	0.0
San Francisco    29	21	112	0.580	2.0
San Diego        27	21	114	0.562	3.0
Arizona          26	24	112	0.520	5.0
Colorado         8	42	112	0.160	23.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Arizona currently has 2 wins against Colorado and 1 losses.
  Arizona wins 9 additional games against Colorado and loses 1.
  Arizona wins the series 11 games to 2

Los Angeles currently has 4 wins against Arizona and 3 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 3 additional games against Arizona and loses 3.
  Los Angeles wins the series 7 games to 6

Los Angeles currently has 3 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 5 additional games against Colorado and loses 5.
  Los Angeles wins the series 8 games to 5

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 5 wins against Colorado and 1 losses.
  San Diego wins 7 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 12 games to 1

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 2 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 5 additional games against San Francisco and loses 6.
  San Diego wins the series 7 games to 6

San Francisco currently has 1 wins against Arizona and 2 losses.
  San Francisco wins 10 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 11 games to 2

San Francisco currently has 3 wins against Colorado and 1 losses.
  San Francisco wins 9 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 12 games to 1

San Francisco currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  San Francisco wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 13 games to 0

Arizona wins 46 games agains teams outside the division and loses 27.
Colorado wins 64 games agains teams outside the division and loses 12.
Los Angeles wins 44 games agains teams outside the division and loses 26.
San Diego wins 70 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 69 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race