Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Toronto's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 30 + 113 - 25 + 1 = 119.
Toronto's first-place clinch number is 111.
Toronto must win 111 more games (136 total) to clinch first place.

If Toronto wins 111 more games, their final win total will be at least 136.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Toronto wins 111 of their remaining 113 games and loses the other 2.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Toronto' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Toronto if Toronto wins 111 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Toronto, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Toronto	Maximum W
New York         30	19	113	      10 - 2 = 8	135
Boston           25	26	111	       6 - 2 = 4	132
Tampa Bay        23	26	113	      10 - 2 = 8	128
Baltimore        16	32	114	       7 - 2 = 5	125

The table above shows that if Toronto wins 111 more games (136 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Toronto's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 111, consider the following scenario in which Toronto wins 110 more games (135 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         136	26	0.840	0.00
Toronto          135	27	0.833	1.00
Boston           100	62	0.617	36.00
Baltimore        77	85	0.475	59.00
Tampa Bay        52	110	0.321	84.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         30	19	113	0.612	0.0
Toronto          25	24	113	0.510	5.0
Boston           25	26	111	0.490	6.0
Tampa Bay        23	26	113	0.469	7.0
Baltimore        16	32	114	0.333	13.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Boston currently has 2 wins against Baltimore and 1 losses.
  Boston wins 10 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 12 games to 1

Boston currently has 2 wins against Tampa Bay and 1 losses.
  Boston wins 10 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 12 games to 1

New York currently has 1 wins against Baltimore and 2 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  New York wins 6 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 6.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 5 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 6 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 11 games to 2

Toronto currently has 1 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 3.
  Toronto wins the series 8 games to 5

Toronto currently has 1 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 10 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore wins 55 games agains teams outside the division and loses 19.
Boston wins 55 games agains teams outside the division and loses 17.
New York wins 74 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 22 games agains teams outside the division and loses 52.
Toronto wins 80 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race