WA: Wednesday, January 10, 8:30-10:00

WA1 Survey

Computational Linear Programming

John Tomlin (IBM Corporation)

This survey will cover some topics in the formulation of large and complex linear programs and discuss solution strategies for these problems.

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WA2 WWW and Distributed Systems

Chair: Ramesh Sharda (Oklahoma State University)

1. On Sharing Decision Technologies Over the WWW

Hemant Bhargava (Naval Postgraduate School), Ramayya Krishnan (Carnegie Mellon University) and Rudolf Muller (Humboldt University, Germany)

The emergence and popularity of the World Wide Web offers an exciting opportunity for the management science (MS) and information systems (IS) communities to offer their ideas and technologies to a larger audience than ever before, as well as to share these technologies within the MS and IS communities. Our efforts in this area are in developing an environment called DecisionNet, that results in an electronic market of decision technologies, in which consumers can use, over the Internet, technologies that are located and that execute over providers' machines without having to "own" them. User functionality in this market is provided via agents who mediate the interactions (e.g., contact, data exchange, billing) that need to take place between consumers and providers.

The set of problems that we will address can be described as follows. A principal objective of our research is to allow decision technology providers---presumably mathematical modelers and decision scientists---to offer their technologies in the market without having to engage in significant re-programming of the technology. This feature is critical, for otherwise there may be no market at all. Our original premise, since substantiated by our prototype implementation, was that the additional effort required to integrate an existing decision technology into a ``use-oriented'' electronic market can be performed, in a general automated manner, by agents in the market. Given that these agents must perform a variety of functions (such as registration, execution, and billing) for different players over a diverse collection of technologies---effectively without having the technology itself---what information do they need about the technologies, how should they reason with the information, and how should they be designed and programmed?

2. Using Many Idle Workstations for Solving GAMS Models

Michael C. Ferris (University of Wisconsin)

The Computer Sciences Department at the University of Wisconsin exploits the power of its workstations using the CONDOR system, a mechanism that allows jobs to be run on idle workstations in the department. This is an enormous computational resource that is exploited in this work.

In many real applications, a sequence of costly but independent mathematical programs need to be solved, typically using a loop statement within a modeling language. Typical examples of this include scenario analysis, sensistivity analysis, and cross-validation in machine learning.

We show how a simple modification to the GAMS source file allows such programs to be solved independently on other workstations and the results recovered in the original model.

Some details of how this procedure is carried out will be given, along with some examples of the use of this procedure in sensitivity analysis for equilibrium models.

3. Introduction of the Interactive Transactions of ORMS

Ramesh Sharda (Oklahoma State University)

We describe the purpose and scope of the new electronic journal to be published by INFORMS. Interactive Transactions of ORMS will publish scholarly articles that take advantage of the interactivity offered by the World Wide Web. Bibliographic papers as well as papers that use the additional capabilities of the WWW beyond print medium will be the primary focus of this journal. This session describes the journal, and includes demonstrations of sample papers that have been written for the journal.

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WA3 Establishing Efficiency of Financial Institutions

Chair: Stavros Zenios (University of Cyprus)

1. Productivity in Financial Services: Empirical Analysis of Process, Human Resource and Technology Management.

Patrick T. Harker (University of Pennsylvania) Francis Frei (University of Rochester)

This paper summarizes the first three years of a multi-year effort to understand the drivers of performance in financial services organizations with particular attention given to the role of technology, human resource and process management in creating high-performance financial institutions. Financial services are the largest single consumer of information technology in the economy, investing $38.7 billion dollars in 1991. This investment has had a profound effect on the overall structure of the industry. However, its effect on financial performance of the industry remains elusive. Why this productivity paradox exists is an important part of the project described herein. Our approach to studying the performance of technology in financial services relies heavily on a process-oriented methodology. That is, we must look at the production processes that technology is meant to support in order fully understand the key success factors in technology management. In addition, we shall not focus on traditional measures of productivity (e.g., transactions per FTE) but rather, on the key competitive measure of performance in order to highlight the process/technology management success factors for financial institutions. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the management of key production processes in retail banking and the role that technology can and must play in their efficiency. More specifically, a sample of key production processes in over 100 major U.S. banks is used to ascertain the efficiency of processes relative to the Rbest in class. By using a variation on frontier estimation (DEA-like) techniques, the impact technology and process management practices on a variety of value-added measures is explained.

2. Predicting Bank Failure Using DEA to Assess Managerial Quality

Thomas F. Siems (Federal Reserve Bank) and Richard S. Barr (Southern Methodist University)

Presented are new failure-prediction models for detecting a bank's troubled status up to two years prior to insolvency using publicly available data and a new category of explanatory variable to capture the elusive, yet critical, element of institutional success: management quality. Quality is assessed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which views a bank as transforming multiple inputs into multiple outputs, focusing on the primary functions of attracting deposits and making loans. The new models are robust and accurate, as verified by in-depth empirical evaluations, cost sensitivity analyses, and comparisons with other published approaches.

3. A DEA Approach For Assessing Intertemporal Operating Efficiency in Seasonal Environments

Andreas C. Soteriou, Stavros A. Zenios, Emmy Gabriel (University of Cyprus)

Over the last few years Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is gaining considerable attention as an efficiency evaluation technique, by a number of for-profit organizations where the underlying input-output transformation relationship is either not known nor easily identified. DEA is typically used to compare a group of DMUs, identify relatively inefficient units and provide insights towards reduction of their inefficiencies. In this paper we present a DEA formulation which can be used to identify inefficient units when DMUs operate in highly seasonal environments. It is important to establish whether efficient DMUs maintain their efficiency throughout a time horizon or whether their efficiency erodes depending on the seasonality pattern. This formulation does not necessarily assume the existence of a different transformation process across time periods, a basic assumption in the traditional "window analysis" approach. It can be used to provide a better picture about the efficiency of a DMU across time, as well as provide inter-temporal strategic insights on benchmarking the effects of the external environment. Results from an empirical study undertaken in a banking institution are reported.

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WA4 Computational Discrete Optimization

Chair: Andrew Boyd (Texas A&M University)

1. Visualizing Mixed Integer Programming

Ed Rothberg (SiliconGraphics)

When solving mixed integer programming problems, prudent choices of a few important parameters (node selection strategies, tree traversal strategies, branching priorities, etc.) can dramatically reduce the time required to solve a problem. Unfortunately, the best choices for these parameters are problem dependent. This talk will describe a tool we are building, called MIPVIS, that depicts information about the progress of a MIP solution in graphical form. This graphical information allows users to build intuition about the nature of their particular problems, often allowing them to make better decisions about the strategies used to solve the problem.

2. How Much Communication Does Parallel Branch and Bound Need?

Jonathan Eckstein (Rutgers University)

Using the CM-5 and a selection of MIPLIB problems, earlier work has established the broad scalability of the classical general MIP branch-and-bound algorithm in parallel environments with fast, low-overhead, multipath communication. If one modifies the implementation to greatly reduce communication, how does scalability suffer?

3. New Lower Bounds for Job-Shop Scheduling

E. Andrew Boyd and Rusty Burlingame (Texas A&M University)

The job-shop scheduling problem was deemed by Applegate and Cook to be "one of the most computationally stubborn combinatorial problems considered to date." Many problems containing as few as 15 jobs and 15 machines remain unsolved to this day. We take steps toward solving these problems by introducing a new lower bounding procedure. Computational results are presented.

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WA5 Neural Networks IV

Chair: Bruce L. Golden (University of Maryland)

1. A Large-Scale Neural Network for Airline Forecasting in Revenue Management

Sharon Hormby, Xiaoyun Sun, and Erik Brauner (BehavHeuristics, Inc.)

A large-scale neural network forecasting system for decision support in airline seat inventory management has been implemented by BehavHeuristics, Inc. and is in use at USAir and Icelandair. This presentation will discuss the various issues related to the application of neural network technology, including knowledge representation, dynamic model configuration, multi-network architectures, and our unique, non-traditional training algorithms. The forecasting accuracy and revenue benefit over years of performance monitoring and data trials will be discussed.

2. Tractable Theories for the Synthesis of Neural Networks

V. Chandru (Indian Institute of Science), M. Vidyasagar, and V. Vinay (Centre for AI and Robotics, Bangalore).

The Radius of Direct attraction of a discrete neural network is a measure of stability of the network. It is known that Hopfield networks designed using Hebb's Rule have a radius of direct attraction of O(n/p) where n is the size of the input patterns and p is the number of them. This lower bound is tight if p is no larger than 4. We construct a family of such networks with radius of direct attraction O( n/sqrt(p log p)), for any p > 5. The techniques used to prove the result led us to the first polynomial-time algorithm for designing a neural network with maximum radius of direct attraction around arbitrary input patterns. The optimal synaptic matrix is computed using the ellipsoid method of linear programming in conjunction with an efficient separation oracle. Restrictions of symmetry and non-negative diagonal entries in the synaptic matrix can be accommodated within this scheme. We also present a stability theory for generalized analog neural networks with energy functions that are multilinear polynomials. The main conclusions are that (i) the network is totally stable, and (ii) "almost all" trajectories of the network converge to a local minimum of the energy function. This is the largest class of functions for which sharp convergence properties are known. As a consequence, many combinatorial optimization problems, particularly in the class PLS(Polynomial Local Search), may be modeled as analog neural networks in a natural way. We illustrate these ideas on the WEIGHTED CNF SAT problem which is known to be PLS-complete.

3. Neural Networks In Practice: Survey Results

Bruce L. Golden (University of Maryland), Edward A. Wasil (American University), Steven P. Coy (University of Maryland), and Cihan H. Dagli (University of Missouri-Rolla)

Neural networks will soon lose their "sex appeal."

Neural networks will rapidly "infiltrate" everyday life.

Alianna J. Maren (1990)

In early 1995, we prepared a questionnaire to determine how companies are using neural networks to solve their problems. We mailed this questionnaire to approximately 1050 individuals. Some of these were academics, but most worked in industry. The questions focus on these key issues: (1) neural network environment, (2) neural network results, and (3) recent project success. We received 131 responses. In this paper, we report on our findings.

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