Arizona Diamondbacks First-Place Elimination Scenario
Arizona must win 15 more games (46 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Arizona finishes in first place with 46 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Arizona          46	116	0.284	0.00
San Diego        46	116	0.284	0.00
Colorado         45	117	0.278	1.00
San Francisco    45	117	0.278	1.00
Los Angeles      45	117	0.278	1.00

Tie breakers
Arizona wins the series with San Diego 8 games to 5

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      37	21	104	0.638	0.0
San Diego        32	25	105	0.561	4.5
Arizona          31	26	105	0.544	5.5
San Francisco    22	36	104	0.379	15.0
Colorado         22	37	103	0.373	15.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Arizona currently has 5 win(s) against Colorado and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against Colorado and loses 5.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 3 loss(es).
Arizona wins 6 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 4.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Arizona currently has 1 win(s) against San Diego and 1 loss(es).
Arizona wins 7 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 4.
Arizona wins the series 8 games to 5.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Arizona currently has 6 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 7.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Colorado currently has 2 win(s) against Los Angeles and 5 loss(es).
Colorado wins 5 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 1.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Colorado currently has 1 win(s) against San Diego and 6 loss(es).
Colorado wins 6 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Colorado currently has 2 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 6 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 5.
Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5.
Colorado wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Los Angeles currently has 2 win(s) against San Diego and 1 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 10.
Los Angeles loses the series 2 games to 11.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Los Angeles currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 4 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 3 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 3.
Los Angeles loses the series 6 games to 7.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

San Diego currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 3 loss(es).
San Diego wins 0 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 7.
San Diego loses the series 3 games to 10.
San Diego wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

# Arizona Diamondbacks' magic number
# Arizona's magic number
# Diamondbacks' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race