Atlanta Braves First-Place Clinch Scenario

Atlanta's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Philadelphia) is 30 + 104 - 40 + 1 = 95.
Atlanta's first-place clinch number is also 95.
Atlanta must win 95 more games (135 total) to clinch first place.

If Atlanta wins 95 more games, their final win total will be at least 135.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Atlanta wins 95 of their remaining 103 games and loses the other 8.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Atlanta' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Atlanta if Atlanta wins 95 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Atlanta, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Atlanta	Maximum W
Philadelphia     30	28	104	               0	134
Washington       30	29	103	               0	133
Miami            26	33	103	               0	129
New York         25	33	104	      13 - 8 = 5	124

The table above shows that if Atlanta wins 95 more games (135 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Atlanta's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 95, consider the following scenario in which Atlanta wins 94 more games (134 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Philadelphia     134	28	0.827	0.00
Atlanta          134	28	0.827	0.00
Washington       98	64	0.605	36.00
Miami            66	96	0.407	68.00
New York         66	96	0.407	68.00

Tie breakers
Philadelphia wins the season series with Atlanta 8 games to 5.

Miami wins the season series with New York 8 games to 5.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          40	19	103	0.678	0.0
Philadelphia     30	28	104	0.517	9.5
Washington       30	29	103	0.508	10.0
Miami            26	33	103	0.441	14.0
New York         25	33	104	0.431	14.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 5 wins against Miami and 2 losses.
  Atlanta wins 6 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 11 games to 2

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Atlanta currently has 4 wins against Washington and 3 losses.
  Atlanta wins 6 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 10 games to 3

Miami currently has 3 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Miami wins 5 additional games against New York and loses 3.
  Miami wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 3 wins against Washington and 4 losses.
  New York wins 4 additional games against Washington and loses 2.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

Philadelphia currently has 1 wins against Atlanta and 5 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 7 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 8 games to 5

Philadelphia currently has 3 wins against Miami and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 9 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Philadelphia currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Washington currently has 1 wins against Miami and 2 losses.
  Washington wins 10 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Washington wins the series 11 games to 2

Atlanta wins 69 games agains teams outside the division and loses 2.
Miami wins 35 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
New York wins 34 games agains teams outside the division and loses 30.
Philadelphia wins 65 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Washington wins 56 games agains teams outside the division and loses 15.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Atlanta Braves' magic number
# Atlanta's magic number
# Braves' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race