Atlanta Braves First-Place Elimination Scenario
Atlanta must win 15 more games (41 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Atlanta finishes in first place with 41 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Atlanta          41	121	0.253	0.00
Philadelphia     41	121	0.253	0.00
Washington       40	122	0.247	1.00
New York         40	122	0.247	1.00
Miami            39	123	0.241	2.00

Tie breakers
Atlanta wins the series with Philadelphia 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          26	12	124	0.684	0.0
Washington       18	20	124	0.474	8.0
Miami            17	21	124	0.447	9.0
Philadelphia     17	21	124	0.447	9.0
New York         14	23	125	0.378	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Atlanta currently has 2 win(s) against Miami and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against Miami and loses 10.
Atlanta loses the series 2 games to 11.
Atlanta wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 83.

Atlanta currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 3 additional game(s) against New York and loses 10.
Atlanta loses the series 3 games to 10.
Atlanta wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 83.

Atlanta currently has 5 win(s) against Philadelphia and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 2 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 5.
Atlanta wins the series 7 games to 6.
Atlanta wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 83.

Atlanta currently has 3 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 8 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 1.
Atlanta wins the series 11 games to 2.
Atlanta wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 83.

Miami currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Miami wins 5 additional game(s) against New York and loses 8.
Miami loses the series 5 games to 8.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Miami currently has 1 win(s) against Philadelphia and 3 loss(es).
Miami wins 7 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 2.
Miami wins the series 8 games to 5.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Miami currently has 0 win(s) against Washington and 0 loss(es).
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 13.
Miami loses the series 0 games to 13.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Philadelphia and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 7.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 76.

New York currently has 1 win(s) against Washington and 2 loss(es).
New York wins 2 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 8.
New York loses the series 3 games to 10.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 76.

Philadelphia currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Philadelphia wins 10 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 0.
Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1.
Philadelphia wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

# Atlanta Braves' magic number
# Atlanta's magic number
# Braves' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race