Baltimore Orioles First-Place Clinch Scenario

Baltimore's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 15 + 137 - 9 + 1 = 144.
Baltimore's first-place clinch number is 136.
Baltimore must win 136 more games (145 total) to clinch first place.

If Baltimore wins 136 more games, their final win total will be at least 145.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Baltimore wins 136 of their remaining 139 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Baltimore' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Baltimore if Baltimore wins 136 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Baltimore, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Baltimore	Maximum W
Toronto          12	13	137	       7 - 3 = 4	145 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Boston           14	12	136	      10 - 3 = 7	143
New York         15	10	137	     13 - 3 = 10	142
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	     13 - 3 = 10	138

Tie-breakers:
Baltimore has won 3 game(s) against Toronto and lost 3.
There are 7 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Baltimore wins 3 + 4 = 7 games against Toronto and loses 3 + 3 = 6.

The table above shows that if Baltimore wins 136 more games (145 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Baltimore's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 136, consider the following scenario in which Baltimore wins 135 more games (144 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          144	18	0.889	0.00
Baltimore        144	18	0.889	0.00
Boston           131	31	0.809	13.00
New York         108	54	0.667	36.00
Tampa Bay        60	102	0.370	84.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the season series with Baltimore 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         15	10	137	0.600	0.0
Boston           14	12	136	0.538	1.5
Toronto          12	13	137	0.480	3.0
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	0.417	4.5
Baltimore        9	14	139	0.391	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Baltimore wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Boston currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

Boston currently has 2 wins against Tampa Bay and 1 losses.
  Boston wins 9 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 1.
  Boston wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 3 wins against Tampa Bay and 1 losses.
  New York wins 9 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 12 games to 1

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 4 additional games against Baltimore and loses 3.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Boston and 1 losses.
  Toronto wins 8 additional games against Boston and loses 1.
  Toronto wins the series 11 games to 2

Toronto currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore wins 96 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Boston wins 94 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 84 games agains teams outside the division and loses 5.
Tampa Bay wins 49 games agains teams outside the division and loses 44.
Toronto wins 94 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Baltimore Orioles' magic number
# Baltimore's magic number
# Orioles' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race