Baltimore Orioles First-Place Elimination Scenario
Baltimore must win 24 more games (44 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Baltimore finishes in first place with 44 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Baltimore        44	118	0.272	0.00
New York         44	118	0.272	0.00
Toronto          43	119	0.265	1.00
Boston           43	119	0.265	1.00
Tampa Bay        42	120	0.259	2.00

Tie breakers
Baltimore wins the series with New York 8 games to 5

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Tampa Bay        29	14	119	0.674	0.0
New York         28	17	117	0.622	2.0
Baltimore        20	25	117	0.444	10.0
Toronto          19	25	118	0.432	10.5
Boston           18	26	118	0.409	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 1 win(s) against Boston and 2 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 10.
Baltimore loses the series 1 games to 12.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Baltimore currently has 2 win(s) against New York and 5 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 12 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 1.
Baltimore wins the series 12 games to 1.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 3.
Boston wins the series 7 games to 6.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 78.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 4.
Boston wins the series 7 games to 6.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 78.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against Toronto and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 2 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 8.
Boston loses the series 3 games to 10.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 78.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 8 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
New York wins the series 8 games to 5.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 78.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 5 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 8.
New York loses the series 5 games to 8.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 78.

Tampa Bay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 1.
Tampa Bay wins the series 11 games to 2.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

# Baltimore Orioles' magic number
# Baltimore's magic number
# Orioles' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race