Boston Red Sox First-Place Clinch Scenario

Boston's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 13 + 143 - 10 + 1 = 147.
Boston's first-place clinch number is 139.
Boston must win 139 more games (149 total) to clinch first place.

If Boston wins 139 more games, their final win total will be at least 149.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Boston wins 139 of their remaining 142 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Boston' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Boston if Boston wins 139 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Boston, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Boston	Maximum W
Baltimore        12	6	144	      10 - 3 = 7	149 *See tie-breaking notes below.
New York         13	6	143	     13 - 3 = 10	146
Tampa Bay        11	9	142	     13 - 3 = 10	143
Toronto          10	9	143	     13 - 3 = 10	143

Tie-breakers:
Boston has won 0 game(s) against Baltimore and lost 3.
There are 10 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Boston wins 0 + 7 = 7 games against Baltimore and loses 3 + 3 = 6.

The table above shows that if Boston wins 139 more games (149 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Boston's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 139, consider the following scenario in which Boston wins 138 more games (148 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Baltimore        148	14	0.914	0.00
Boston           148	14	0.914	0.00
Toronto          91	71	0.562	57.00
New York         80	82	0.494	68.00
Tampa Bay        80	82	0.494	68.00

Tie breakers
Baltimore wins the season series with Boston 7 games to 6.

New York wins the season series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         13	6	143	0.684	0.0
Baltimore        12	6	144	0.667	0.5
Tampa Bay        11	9	142	0.550	2.5
Toronto          10	9	143	0.526	3.0
Boston           10	10	142	0.500	3.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 4 additional games against Boston and loses 6.
  Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 12 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 1.
  Baltimore wins the series 12 games to 1

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Boston currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

Boston currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

Boston currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 6.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

Toronto currently has 3 wins against New York and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Toronto currently has 2 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 8 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 1.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Baltimore wins 94 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Boston wins 93 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 60 games agains teams outside the division and loses 37.
Tampa Bay wins 61 games agains teams outside the division and loses 33.
Toronto wins 66 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Boston Red Sox' magic number
# Boston's magic number
# Red Sox' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race