Chicago Cubs First-Place Clinch Scenario

Chicago's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Milwaukee) is 11 + 145 - 11 + 1 = 146.
Chicago's first-place clinch number is 138.
Chicago must win 138 more games (149 total) to clinch first place.

If Chicago wins 138 more games, their final win total will be at least 149.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Chicago wins 138 of their remaining 144 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Chicago' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Chicago if Chicago wins 138 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to ChicagoCubs, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Chicago	Maximum W
Milwaukee        11	6	145	      13 - 6 = 7	149 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Pittsburgh       11	8	143	      13 - 6 = 7	147
Cincinnati       9	9	144	      13 - 6 = 7	146
St. Louis        9	10	143	      13 - 6 = 7	145

Tie-breakers:
Chicago has won 0 game(s) against Milwaukee and lost 0.
There are 13 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Chicago wins 0 + 7 = 7 games against Milwaukee and loses 0 + 6 = 6.

The table above shows that if Chicago wins 138 more games (149 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Chicago's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 138, consider the following scenario in which Chicago wins 137 more games (148 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Pittsburgh       148	14	0.914	0.00
Chicago          148	14	0.914	0.00
Cincinnati       91	71	0.562	57.00
Milwaukee        76	86	0.469	72.00
St. Louis        73	89	0.451	75.00

Tie breakers
Pittsburgh wins the season series with Chicago 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Milwaukee        11	6	145	0.647	0.0
Chicago          11	7	144	0.611	0.5
Pittsburgh       11	8	143	0.579	1.0
Cincinnati       9	9	144	0.500	2.5
St. Louis        9	10	143	0.474	3.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Chicago currently has 0 wins against Cincinnati and 0 losses.
  Chicago wins 13 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 13 games to 0

Chicago currently has 0 wins against Milwaukee and 0 losses.
  Chicago wins 13 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 13 games to 0

Chicago currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Chicago wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 13 games to 0

Cincinnati currently has 1 wins against Milwaukee and 2 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 10 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 11 games to 2

Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 13 games to 0

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 7 additional games against Chicago and loses 6.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 7 games to 6

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against Cincinnati and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 13 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 13 games to 0

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against Milwaukee and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 13 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 13 games to 0

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 13 games to 0

St. Louis currently has 0 wins against Milwaukee and 0 losses.
  St. Louis wins 13 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 13 games to 0

Chicago wins 92 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Cincinnati wins 59 games agains teams outside the division and loses 36.
Milwaukee wins 65 games agains teams outside the division and loses 31.
Pittsburgh wins 91 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
St. Louis wins 51 games agains teams outside the division and loses 40.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Chicago Cubs' magic number
# Chicago's magic number
# Cubs' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race