Houston Astros First-Place Clinch Scenario

Houston's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Oakland) is 1 + 161 - 0 + 1 = 163.
Houston's first-place clinch number is 155.
Houston must win 155 more games (155 total) to clinch first place.

If Houston wins 155 more games, their final win total will be at least 155.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Houston wins 155 of their remaining 161 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Houston' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Houston if Houston wins 155 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Houston, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Houston	Maximum W
Oakland          1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Seattle          1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Texas            1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Los Angeles      0	1	161	      13 - 6 = 7	154

Tie-breakers:
Houston has won 0 game(s) against Oakland and lost 0.
There are 13 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Houston wins 0 + 7 = 7 games against Oakland and loses 0 + 6 = 6.
Houston has won 0 game(s) against Seattle and lost 0.
There are 13 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Houston wins 0 + 7 = 7 games against Seattle and loses 0 + 6 = 6.
Houston has won 0 game(s) against Texas and lost 0.
There are 13 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Houston wins 0 + 7 = 7 games against Texas and loses 0 + 6 = 6.

The table above shows that if Houston wins 155 more games (155 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Houston's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 155, consider the following scenario in which Houston wins 154 more games (154 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Texas            156	6	0.963	0.00
Houston          154	8	0.951	0.00
Seattle          65	97	0.401	89.00
Los Angeles      53	109	0.327	101.00
Oakland          52	110	0.321	102.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Oakland          1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Seattle          1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Texas            1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Houston          0	1	161	0.000	1.0
Los Angeles      0	1	161	0.000	1.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Houston currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Houston wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 13 games to 0

Houston currently has 0 wins against Oakland and 0 losses.
  Houston wins 13 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 13 games to 0

Houston currently has 0 wins against Seattle and 0 losses.
  Houston wins 13 additional games against Seattle and loses 0.
  Houston wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Oakland and 1 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 12 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 12 games to 1

Seattle currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Seattle wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 13 games to 0

Seattle currently has 0 wins against Oakland and 0 losses.
  Seattle wins 13 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Seattle wins the series 13 games to 0

Texas currently has 0 wins against Houston and 0 losses.
  Texas wins 7 additional games against Houston and loses 6.
  Texas wins the series 7 games to 6

Texas currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Texas wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Texas wins the series 13 games to 0

Texas currently has 0 wins against Oakland and 0 losses.
  Texas wins 13 additional games against Oakland and loses 0.
  Texas wins the series 13 games to 0

Texas currently has 0 wins against Seattle and 0 losses.
  Texas wins 13 additional games against Seattle and loses 0.
  Texas wins the series 13 games to 0

Houston wins 109 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Los Angeles wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 69.
Oakland wins 51 games agains teams outside the division and loses 59.
Seattle wins 38 games agains teams outside the division and loses 71.
Texas wins 109 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Houston Astros' magic number
# Houston's magic number
# Astros' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race