Miami Marlins First-Place Clinch Scenario

Miami's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 18 + 137 - 11 + 1 = 145.
Miami's first-place clinch number is 138.
Miami must win 138 more games (149 total) to clinch first place.

If Miami wins 138 more games, their final win total will be at least 149.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Miami wins all 138 of their remaining games.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Miami' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Miami if Miami wins 138 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Miami, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Miami 	Maximum W
New York         18	7	137	       7 - 0 = 7	148
Philadelphia     13	12	137	     10 - 0 = 10	140
Washington       11	13	138	     10 - 0 = 10	139
Atlanta          10	14	138	     11 - 0 = 11	137

The table above shows that if Miami wins 138 more games (149 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Miami's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 138, consider the following scenario in which Miami wins 137 more games (148 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         149	13	0.920	0.00
Miami            148	14	0.914	1.00
Atlanta          94	68	0.580	55.00
Washington       83	79	0.512	66.00
Philadelphia     78	84	0.481	71.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         18	7	137	0.720	0.0
Philadelphia     13	12	137	0.520	5.0
Miami            11	13	138	0.458	6.5
Washington       11	13	138	0.458	6.5
Atlanta          10	14	138	0.417	7.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 2 wins against Philadelphia and 1 losses.
  Atlanta wins 8 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 2.
  Atlanta wins the series 10 games to 3

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 1 wins against Atlanta and 1 losses.
  Miami wins 11 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 12 games to 1

Miami currently has 2 wins against New York and 4 losses.
  Miami wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 1.
  Miami wins the series 8 games to 5

Miami currently has 1 wins against Philadelphia and 2 losses.
  Miami wins 10 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 11 games to 2

Miami currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Miami wins 10 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 12 games to 1

New York currently has 0 wins against Atlanta and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 3 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta wins 63 games agains teams outside the division and loses 28.
Miami wins 100 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 94 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Philadelphia wins 53 games agains teams outside the division and loses 44.
Washington wins 72 games agains teams outside the division and loses 20.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Miami Marlins' magic number
# Miami's magic number
# Marlins' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race