Miami Marlins First-Place Clinch Scenario

Miami's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Atlanta) is 12 + 145 - 4 + 1 = 154.
Miami's first-place clinch number is 143.
Miami must win 143 more games (147 total) to clinch first place.

If Miami wins 143 more games, their final win total will be at least 147.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Miami wins all 143 of their remaining games.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Miami' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Miami if Miami wins 143 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Miami, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Miami 	Maximum W
Atlanta          12	5	145	     10 - 0 = 10	147 *See tie-breaking notes below.
New York         10	8	144	     13 - 0 = 13	141
Philadelphia     11	8	143	     13 - 0 = 13	141
Washington       8	10	144	     13 - 0 = 13	139

Tie-breakers:
Miami has won 1 game(s) against Atlanta and lost 2.
There are 10 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Miami wins 1 + 10 = 11 games against Atlanta and loses 2 + 0 = 2.

The table above shows that if Miami wins 143 more games (147 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Miami's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 143, consider the following scenario in which Miami wins 142 more games (146 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Atlanta          148	14	0.914	0.00
Miami            146	16	0.901	2.00
Philadelphia     76	86	0.469	72.00
New York         71	91	0.438	77.00
Washington       71	91	0.438	77.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the season series with Washington 13 games to 0.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          12	5	145	0.706	0.0
Philadelphia     11	8	143	0.579	2.0
New York         10	8	144	0.556	2.5
Washington       8	10	144	0.444	4.5
Miami            4	15	143	0.211	9.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 1 wins against New York and 2 losses.
  Atlanta wins 10 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 11 games to 2

Atlanta currently has 2 wins against Philadelphia and 1 losses.
  Atlanta wins 10 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Atlanta wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 1 wins against Atlanta and 2 losses.
  Miami wins 9 additional games against Atlanta and loses 1.
  Miami wins the series 10 games to 3

Miami currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 0 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

Miami currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  Miami wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Miami wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Washington and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Philadelphia currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 12 additional games against New York and loses 1.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta wins 102 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Miami wins 94 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
New York wins 47 games agains teams outside the division and loses 48.
Philadelphia wins 43 games agains teams outside the division and loses 54.
Washington wins 63 games agains teams outside the division and loses 32.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Miami Marlins' magic number
# Miami's magic number
# Marlins' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race