Milwaukee Brewers First-Place Clinch Scenario

Milwaukee's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Chicago) is 15 + 138 - 15 + 1 = 139.
Milwaukee's first-place clinch number is 134.
Milwaukee must win 134 more games (149 total) to clinch first place.

If Milwaukee wins 134 more games, their final win total will be at least 149.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Milwaukee wins 134 of their remaining 139 games and loses the other 5.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Milwaukee' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Milwaukee if Milwaukee wins 134 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Milwaukee, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Milwaukee	Maximum W
Cincinnati       14	10	138	      10 - 5 = 5	147
Chicago          15	9	138	      13 - 5 = 8	145
Pittsburgh       13	12	137	      10 - 5 = 5	145
St. Louis        11	14	137	      10 - 5 = 5	143

The table above shows that if Milwaukee wins 134 more games (149 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Milwaukee's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 134, consider the following scenario in which Milwaukee wins 133 more games (148 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Cincinnati       148	14	0.914	0.00
Milwaukee        148	14	0.914	0.00
Chicago          63	99	0.389	85.00
St. Louis        62	100	0.383	86.00
Pittsburgh       59	103	0.364	89.00

Tie breakers
Cincinnati wins the season series with Milwaukee 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Milwaukee        15	8	139	0.652	0.0
Chicago          15	9	138	0.625	0.5
Cincinnati       14	10	138	0.583	1.5
Pittsburgh       13	12	137	0.520	3.0
St. Louis        11	14	137	0.440	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Chicago currently has 0 wins against Pittsburgh and 0 losses.
  Chicago wins 8 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 5.
  Chicago wins the series 8 games to 5

Chicago currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Chicago wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 13 games to 0

Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 13 games to 0

Cincinnati currently has 1 wins against Milwaukee and 2 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 6 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 4.
  Cincinnati wins the series 7 games to 6

Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against Pittsburgh and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 13 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 13 games to 0

Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 13 games to 0

Milwaukee currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 13 games to 0

Milwaukee currently has 1 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 10 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 11 games to 2

Milwaukee currently has 3 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 10 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 13 games to 0

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against St. Louis and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 13 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 13 games to 0

Chicago wins 27 games agains teams outside the division and loses 59.
Cincinnati wins 89 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Milwaukee wins 96 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins 28 games agains teams outside the division and loses 60.
St. Louis wins 51 games agains teams outside the division and loses 37.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Milwaukee Brewers' magic number
# Milwaukee's magic number
# Brewers' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race