Milwaukee Brewers First-Place Clinch Scenario

Milwaukee's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Chicago) is 55 + 68 - 54 + 1 = 70.
Milwaukee's first-place clinch number is 65.
Milwaukee must win 65 more games (119 total) to clinch first place.

If Milwaukee wins 65 more games, their final win total will be at least 119.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Milwaukee wins 65 of their remaining 68 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Milwaukee' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Milwaukee if Milwaukee wins 65 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Milwaukee, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Milwaukee	Maximum W
Chicago          55	39	68	       8 - 3 = 5	118
St. Louis        50	45	67	       6 - 3 = 3	114
Cincinnati       48	47	67	       6 - 3 = 3	112
Pittsburgh       38	57	67	       6 - 3 = 3	102

The table above shows that if Milwaukee wins 65 more games (119 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Milwaukee's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 65, consider the following scenario in which Milwaukee wins 64 more games (118 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Chicago          118	44	0.728	0.00
Milwaukee        118	44	0.728	0.00
Cincinnati       72	90	0.444	46.00
St. Louis        69	93	0.426	49.00
Pittsburgh       51	111	0.315	67.00

Tie breakers
Chicago wins the season series with Milwaukee 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Chicago          55	39	68	0.585	0.0
Milwaukee        54	40	68	0.574	1.0
St. Louis        50	45	67	0.526	5.5
Cincinnati       48	47	67	0.505	7.5
Pittsburgh       38	57	67	0.400	17.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Chicago currently has 4 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 7 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 3 wins against Milwaukee and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 4 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 4.
  Chicago wins the series 7 games to 6

Chicago currently has 5 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Chicago wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Chicago wins the series 10 games to 3

Cincinnati currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 2 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 5 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 2.
  Cincinnati wins the series 9 games to 4

Milwaukee currently has 5 wins against Cincinnati and 2 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 11 games to 2

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against Pittsburgh and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

Milwaukee currently has 4 wins against St. Louis and 3 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 6 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3

Pittsburgh currently has 5 wins against St. Louis and 4 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 4 additional games against St. Louis and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 9 games to 4

St. Louis currently has 4 wins against Cincinnati and 3 losses.
  St. Louis wins 4 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 2.
  St. Louis wins the series 8 games to 5

Chicago wins 40 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Cincinnati wins 17 games agains teams outside the division and loses 24.
Milwaukee wins 42 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins 7 games agains teams outside the division and loses 37.
St. Louis wins 15 games agains teams outside the division and loses 30.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Milwaukee Brewers' magic number
# Milwaukee's magic number
# Brewers' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race