Minnesota Twins First-Place Clinch Scenario

Minnesota's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Cleveland) is 18 + 127 - 15 + 1 = 131.
Minnesota's first-place clinch number is 124.
Minnesota must win 124 more games (139 total) to clinch first place.

If Minnesota wins 124 more games, their final win total will be at least 139.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Minnesota wins 124 of their remaining 127 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Minnesota' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Minnesota if Minnesota wins 124 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Minnesota, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Minnesota	Maximum W
Detroit          18	17	127	       9 - 3 = 6	139 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Kansas City      15	19	128	      10 - 3 = 7	136
Cleveland        18	17	127	     13 - 3 = 10	135
Chicago          16	18	128	     13 - 3 = 10	134

Tie-breakers:
Minnesota has won 4 game(s) against Detroit and lost 0.
There are 9 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Minnesota wins 4 + 6 = 10 games against Detroit and loses 0 + 3 = 3.

The table above shows that if Minnesota wins 124 more games (139 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Minnesota's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 124, consider the following scenario in which Minnesota wins 123 more games (138 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Detroit          140	22	0.864	0.00
Minnesota        138	24	0.852	2.00
Kansas City      100	62	0.617	40.00
Cleveland        99	63	0.611	41.00
Chicago          74	88	0.457	66.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Cleveland        18	17	127	0.514	0.0
Detroit          18	17	127	0.514	0.0
Chicago          16	18	128	0.471	1.5
Kansas City      15	19	128	0.441	2.5
Minnesota        15	20	127	0.429	3.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Cleveland currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Cleveland wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Cleveland wins the series 13 games to 0

Detroit currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Detroit wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Detroit wins the series 13 games to 0

Detroit currently has 0 wins against Cleveland and 0 losses.
  Detroit wins 13 additional games against Cleveland and loses 0.
  Detroit wins the series 13 games to 0

Detroit currently has 3 wins against Kansas City and 0 losses.
  Detroit wins 10 additional games against Kansas City and loses 0.
  Detroit wins the series 13 games to 0

Kansas City currently has 2 wins against Chicago and 2 losses.
  Kansas City wins 9 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Kansas City wins the series 11 games to 2

Kansas City currently has 1 wins against Cleveland and 2 losses.
  Kansas City wins 10 additional games against Cleveland and loses 0.
  Kansas City wins the series 11 games to 2

Minnesota currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Minnesota wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Minnesota wins the series 13 games to 0

Minnesota currently has 0 wins against Cleveland and 0 losses.
  Minnesota wins 13 additional games against Cleveland and loses 0.
  Minnesota wins the series 13 games to 0

Minnesota currently has 4 wins against Detroit and 0 losses.
  Minnesota wins 5 additional games against Detroit and loses 4.
  Minnesota wins the series 9 games to 4

Minnesota currently has 1 wins against Kansas City and 2 losses.
  Minnesota wins 10 additional games against Kansas City and loses 0.
  Minnesota wins the series 11 games to 2

Chicago wins 58 games agains teams outside the division and loses 22.
Cleveland wins 68 games agains teams outside the division and loses 10.
Detroit wins 82 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Kansas City wins 66 games agains teams outside the division and loses 23.
Minnesota wins 82 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Minnesota Twins' magic number
# Minnesota's magic number
# Twins' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race