New York Mets First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
New York must win 15 more games (45 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which New York finishes in first place with 45 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         45	117	0.278	0.00
Miami            45	117	0.278	0.00
Philadelphia     45	117	0.278	0.00
Washington       44	118	0.272	1.00
Atlanta          44	118	0.272	1.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the series with Miami 7 games to 6
New York wins the series with Philadelphia 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Philadelphia     33	18	111	0.647	0.0
New York         30	21	111	0.588	3.0
Atlanta          24	26	112	0.480	8.5
Washington       23	28	111	0.451	10.0
Miami            19	30	113	0.388	13.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Atlanta currently has 1 win(s) against Miami and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 5 additional game(s) against Miami and loses 6.
Atlanta loses the series 6 games to 7.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 10 additional game(s) against New York and loses 3.
Atlanta wins the series 10 games to 3.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 2 win(s) against Philadelphia and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 5 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 5.
Atlanta wins the series 7 games to 6.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 3 win(s) against Washington and 3 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 7.
Atlanta loses the series 3 games to 10.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Miami currently has 2 win(s) against New York and 4 loss(es).
Miami wins 4 additional game(s) against New York and loses 3.
Miami loses the series 6 games to 7.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Miami currently has 1 win(s) against Philadelphia and 2 loss(es).
Miami wins 10 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 0.
Miami wins the series 11 games to 2.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

Miami currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Miami wins 6 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 4.
Miami wins the series 8 games to 5.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 75.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Philadelphia and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 4 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 6.
New York wins the series 7 games to 6.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 2 loss(es).
New York wins 5 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 4.
New York wins the series 7 games to 6.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Philadelphia currently has 4 win(s) against Washington and 2 loss(es).
Philadelphia wins 1 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 6.
Philadelphia loses the series 5 games to 8.
Philadelphia wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

# New York Mets' magic number
# New York's magic number
# Mets' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race