New York Mets First-Place Elimination Scenario
New York must win 25 more games (48 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which New York finishes in first place with 48 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         48	114	0.296	0.00
Philadelphia     48	114	0.296	0.00
Atlanta          47	115	0.290	1.00
Washington       47	115	0.290	1.00
Miami            47	115	0.290	1.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the series with Philadelphia 12 games to 1

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          38	19	105	0.667	0.0
Philadelphia     29	27	106	0.518	8.5
Washington       29	28	105	0.509	9.0
Miami            26	31	105	0.456	12.0
New York         23	33	106	0.411	14.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Atlanta currently has 5 win(s) against Miami and 2 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 4 additional game(s) against Miami and loses 2.
Atlanta wins the series 9 games to 4.
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Atlanta currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against New York and loses 13.
Atlanta loses the series 0 games to 13.
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Atlanta currently has 5 win(s) against Philadelphia and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 7.
Atlanta loses the series 5 games to 8.
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Atlanta currently has 4 win(s) against Washington and 3 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 4 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 2.
Atlanta wins the series 8 games to 5.
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 72.

Miami currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Miami wins 10 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Miami wins the series 13 games to 0.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Miami currently has 1 win(s) against Philadelphia and 3 loss(es).
Miami wins 9 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 0.
Miami wins the series 10 games to 3.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Miami currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 10.
Miami loses the series 2 games to 11.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Philadelphia and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 12 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 1.
New York wins the series 12 games to 1.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 64.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Washington and 4 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 6.
New York loses the series 3 games to 10.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 64.

Philadelphia currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Philadelphia wins 10 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 0.
Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1.
Philadelphia wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 66.

# New York Mets' magic number
# New York's magic number
# Mets' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race