Philadelphia Phillies First-Place Clinch Scenario

Philadelphia's traditional magic number (relative to second-place New York) is 30 + 111 - 33 + 1 = 109.
Philadelphia's first-place clinch number is 105.
Philadelphia must win 105 more games (138 total) to clinch first place.

If Philadelphia wins 105 more games, their final win total will be at least 138.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Philadelphia wins 105 of their remaining 111 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Philadelphia' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Philadelphia if Philadelphia wins 105 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Philadelphia, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Philadelphia	Maximum W
New York         30	21	111	      10 - 6 = 4	137
Washington       23	28	111	       7 - 6 = 1	133
Atlanta          24	26	112	      10 - 6 = 4	132
Miami            19	30	113	      10 - 6 = 4	128

The table above shows that if Philadelphia wins 105 more games (138 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Philadelphia's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 105, consider the following scenario in which Philadelphia wins 104 more games (137 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         137	25	0.846	0.00
Philadelphia     137	25	0.846	0.00
Atlanta          93	69	0.574	44.00
Miami            67	95	0.414	70.00
Washington       55	107	0.340	82.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the season series with Philadelphia 10 games to 3.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Philadelphia     33	18	111	0.647	0.0
New York         30	21	111	0.588	3.0
Atlanta          24	26	112	0.480	8.5
Washington       23	28	111	0.451	10.0
Miami            19	30	113	0.388	13.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Atlanta currently has 1 wins against Miami and 1 losses.
  Atlanta wins 11 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 12 games to 1

Atlanta currently has 3 wins against Washington and 3 losses.
  Atlanta wins 7 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Atlanta wins the series 10 games to 3

Miami currently has 2 wins against Washington and 1 losses.
  Miami wins 6 additional games against Washington and loses 4.
  Miami wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 0 wins against Atlanta and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 4 wins against Miami and 2 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

New York currently has 3 wins against Philadelphia and 0 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Philadelphia and loses 3.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

New York currently has 2 wins against Washington and 2 losses.
  New York wins 9 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 11 games to 2

Philadelphia currently has 1 wins against Atlanta and 2 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Atlanta and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 11 games to 2

Philadelphia currently has 2 wins against Miami and 1 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 10 additional games against Miami and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 12 games to 1

Philadelphia currently has 4 wins against Washington and 2 losses.
  Philadelphia wins 7 additional games against Washington and loses 0.
  Philadelphia wins the series 11 games to 2

Atlanta wins 51 games agains teams outside the division and loses 20.
Miami wins 42 games agains teams outside the division and loses 33.
New York wins 71 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Philadelphia wins 74 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Washington wins 28 games agains teams outside the division and loses 50.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Philadelphia Phillies' magic number
# Philadelphia's magic number
# Phillies' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race