Philadelphia Phillies First-Place Elimination Scenario
Philadelphia must win 19 more games (49 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Philadelphia finishes in first place with 49 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Philadelphia     49	113	0.302	0.00
New York         49	113	0.302	0.00
Atlanta          48	114	0.296	1.00
Washington       47	115	0.290	2.00
Miami            46	116	0.284	3.00

Tie breakers
Philadelphia wins the series with New York 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Atlanta          40	19	103	0.678	0.0
Philadelphia     30	28	104	0.517	9.5
Washington       30	29	103	0.508	10.0
Miami            26	33	103	0.441	14.0
New York         25	33	104	0.431	14.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Atlanta currently has 5 win(s) against Miami and 2 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against Miami and loses 5.
Atlanta loses the series 6 games to 7.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 1 additional game(s) against New York and loses 12.
Atlanta loses the series 1 games to 12.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 5 win(s) against Philadelphia and 1 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 6 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 1.
Atlanta wins the series 11 games to 2.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Atlanta currently has 4 win(s) against Washington and 3 loss(es).
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 6.
Atlanta loses the series 4 games to 9.
Atlanta wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 71.

Miami currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 2 loss(es).
Miami wins 8 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Miami wins the series 11 games to 2.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Miami currently has 1 win(s) against Philadelphia and 3 loss(es).
Miami wins 4 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 5.
Miami loses the series 5 games to 8.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

Miami currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Miami wins 3 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 7.
Miami loses the series 5 games to 8.
Miami wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 70.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Philadelphia and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Philadelphia and loses 7.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 64.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Washington and 4 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 0.
New York wins the series 9 games to 4.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 64.

Philadelphia currently has 2 win(s) against Washington and 1 loss(es).
Philadelphia wins 6 additional game(s) against Washington and loses 4.
Philadelphia wins the series 8 games to 5.
Philadelphia wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 65.

# Philadelphia Phillies' magic number
# Philadelphia's magic number
# Phillies' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race