San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Los Angeles) is 13 + 138 - 12 + 1 = 140.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 135.
San Diego must win 135 more games (147 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 135 more games, their final win total will be at least 147.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins 135 of their remaining 138 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 135 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Los Angeles      13	11	138	       8 - 3 = 5	146
San Francisco    10	13	139	       6 - 3 = 3	146
Arizona          11	12	139	     13 - 3 = 10	140
Colorado         5	17	140	     13 - 3 = 10	135

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 135 more games (147 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 135, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 134 more games (146 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Francisco    146	16	0.901	0.00
San Diego        146	16	0.901	0.00
Los Angeles      83	79	0.512	63.00
Arizona          70	92	0.432	76.00
Colorado         61	101	0.377	85.00

Tie breakers
San Francisco wins the season series with San Diego 8 games to 5.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      13	11	138	0.542	0.0
San Diego        12	12	138	0.500	1.0
Arizona          11	12	139	0.478	1.5
San Francisco    10	13	139	0.435	2.5
Colorado         5	17	140	0.227	7.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Arizona currently has 5 wins against Colorado and 2 losses.
  Arizona wins 4 additional games against Colorado and loses 2.
  Arizona wins the series 9 games to 4

Colorado currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 10 additional games against Arizona and loses 3.
  Los Angeles wins the series 10 games to 3

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 3 wins against Los Angeles and 2 losses.
  San Diego wins 8 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 11 games to 2

San Francisco currently has 2 wins against Arizona and 2 losses.
  San Francisco wins 9 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 11 games to 2

San Francisco currently has 0 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  San Francisco wins 13 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 13 games to 0

San Francisco currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 3 losses.
  San Francisco wins 10 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 10 games to 3

San Francisco currently has 4 wins against San Diego and 3 losses.
  San Francisco wins 4 additional games against San Diego and loses 2.
  San Francisco wins the series 8 games to 5

Arizona wins 52 games agains teams outside the division and loses 46.
Colorado wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 54.
Los Angeles wins 60 games agains teams outside the division and loses 34.
San Diego wins 98 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 100 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race