San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Colorado) is 1 + 161 - 0 + 1 = 163.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 156.
San Diego must win 156 more games (156 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 156 more games, their final win total will be at least 156.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins 156 of their remaining 161 games and loses the other 5.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 156 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Colorado         1	0	161	      12 - 5 = 7	155
Los Angeles      1	0	161	      13 - 5 = 8	154
Arizona          0	1	161	      13 - 5 = 8	153
San Francisco    0	1	161	      13 - 5 = 8	153

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 156 more games (156 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 156, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 155 more games (155 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Colorado         155	7	0.957	0.00
San Diego        155	7	0.957	0.00
Arizona          52	110	0.321	103.00
Los Angeles      51	111	0.315	104.00
San Francisco    49	113	0.302	106.00

Tie breakers
Colorado wins the season series with San Diego 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Colorado         1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Los Angeles      1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Arizona          0	1	161	0.000	1.0
San Diego        0	1	161	0.000	1.0
San Francisco    0	1	161	0.000	1.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Colorado currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0

Colorado currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0

Colorado currently has 1 wins against San Diego and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 6 additional games against San Diego and loses 6.
  Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6

Colorado currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 1 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 12 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Los Angeles and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Francisco currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Francisco wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 13 games to 0

Arizona wins 52 games agains teams outside the division and loses 58.
Colorado wins 109 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.
Los Angeles wins 25 games agains teams outside the division and loses 85.
San Diego wins 110 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 36 games agains teams outside the division and loses 73.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race