San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Los Angeles) is 58 + 65 - 52 + 1 = 72.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 66.
San Diego must win 66 more games (118 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 66 more games, their final win total will be at least 118.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins all 66 of their remaining games.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 66 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Los Angeles      58	39	65	       6 - 0 = 6	117
San Francisco    52	45	65	       7 - 0 = 7	110
Arizona          47	50	65	       6 - 0 = 6	106
Colorado         22	74	66	       7 - 0 = 7	81

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 66 more games (118 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 66, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 65 more games (117 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      118	44	0.728	0.00
San Diego        117	45	0.722	1.00
San Francisco    73	89	0.451	45.00
Arizona          65	97	0.401	53.00
Colorado         39	123	0.241	79.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      58	39	65	0.598	0.0
San Diego        52	44	66	0.542	5.5
San Francisco    52	45	65	0.536	6.0
Arizona          47	50	65	0.485	11.0
Colorado         22	74	66	0.229	35.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Arizona currently has 4 wins against Colorado and 2 losses.
  Arizona wins 7 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  Arizona wins the series 11 games to 2

Los Angeles currently has 4 wins against Arizona and 3 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 6 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 10 games to 3

Los Angeles currently has 6 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 7 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 4 wins against San Francisco and 2 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 7 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 11 games to 2

San Diego currently has 3 wins against Arizona and 4 losses.
  San Diego wins 6 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 9 games to 4

San Diego currently has 5 wins against Colorado and 1 losses.
  San Diego wins 7 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 12 games to 1

San Diego currently has 2 wins against Los Angeles and 5 losses.
  San Diego wins 5 additional games against Los Angeles and loses 1.
  San Diego wins the series 7 games to 6

San Diego currently has 4 wins against San Francisco and 2 losses.
  San Diego wins 7 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 11 games to 2

San Francisco currently has 3 wins against Arizona and 4 losses.
  San Francisco wins 5 additional games against Arizona and loses 1.
  San Francisco wins the series 8 games to 5

San Francisco currently has 5 wins against Colorado and 2 losses.
  San Francisco wins 6 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Francisco wins the series 11 games to 2

Arizona wins 10 games agains teams outside the division and loses 30.
Colorado wins 17 games agains teams outside the division and loses 22.
Los Angeles wins 39 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Diego wins 40 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 10 games agains teams outside the division and loses 29.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race