San Diego Padres First-Place Clinch Scenario

San Diego's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Los Angeles) is 16 + 137 - 17 + 1 = 137.
San Diego's first-place clinch number is 131.
San Diego must win 131 more games (148 total) to clinch first place.

If San Diego wins 131 more games, their final win total will be at least 148.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if San Diego wins 131 of their remaining 137 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to San Diego' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to San Diego if San Diego wins 131 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to SanDiego, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to San Diego	Maximum W
Los Angeles      16	9	137	      13 - 6 = 7	146
San Francisco    16	9	137	      13 - 6 = 7	146
Arizona          14	10	138	      13 - 6 = 7	145
Colorado         4	18	140	      10 - 6 = 4	140

The table above shows that if San Diego wins 131 more games (148 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that San Diego's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 131, consider the following scenario in which San Diego wins 130 more games (147 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      147	15	0.907	0.00
San Diego        147	15	0.907	0.00
San Francisco    88	74	0.543	59.00
Arizona          87	75	0.537	60.00
Colorado         87	75	0.537	60.00

Tie breakers
Los Angeles wins the season series with San Diego 7 games to 6.

Arizona wins the season series with Colorado 11 games to 2.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
San Diego        17	8	137	0.680	0.0
Los Angeles      16	9	137	0.640	1.0
San Francisco    16	9	137	0.640	1.0
Arizona          14	10	138	0.583	2.5
Colorado         4	18	140	0.182	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Arizona currently has 0 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  Arizona wins 11 additional games against Colorado and loses 2.
  Arizona wins the series 11 games to 2

Colorado currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Colorado wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Colorado wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 3 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 10 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against San Diego and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 7 additional games against San Diego and loses 6.
  Los Angeles wins the series 7 games to 6

Los Angeles currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  Los Angeles wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  Los Angeles wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against Arizona and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 3 wins against Colorado and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 10 additional games against Colorado and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Diego currently has 0 wins against San Francisco and 0 losses.
  San Diego wins 13 additional games against San Francisco and loses 0.
  San Diego wins the series 13 games to 0

San Francisco currently has 0 wins against Arizona and 0 losses.
  San Francisco wins 8 additional games against Arizona and loses 5.
  San Francisco wins the series 8 games to 5

Arizona wins 57 games agains teams outside the division and loses 29.
Colorado wins 68 games agains teams outside the division and loses 26.
Los Angeles wins 88 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Diego wins 88 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
San Francisco wins 64 games agains teams outside the division and loses 21.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race