San Diego Padres First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
San Diego must win 13 more games (62 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which San Diego finishes in first place with 62 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Diego        62	100	0.383	0.00
Los Angeles      62	100	0.383	0.00
Arizona          61	101	0.377	1.00
San Francisco    61	101	0.377	1.00
Colorado         60	102	0.370	2.00

Tie breakers
San Diego wins the series with Los Angeles 8 games to 5

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      56	38	68	0.596	0.0
San Francisco    51	43	68	0.543	5.0
San Diego        49	43	70	0.533	6.0
Arizona          46	47	69	0.495	9.5
Colorado         21	72	69	0.226	34.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Arizona currently has 4 win(s) against Colorado and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against Colorado and loses 7.
Arizona loses the series 4 games to 9.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Arizona currently has 3 win(s) against Los Angeles and 4 loss(es).
Arizona wins 4 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 2.
Arizona wins the series 7 games to 6.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Arizona currently has 4 win(s) against San Diego and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 4 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 3.
Arizona wins the series 8 games to 5.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Arizona currently has 4 win(s) against San Francisco and 3 loss(es).
Arizona wins 6 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 0.
Arizona wins the series 10 games to 3.
Arizona wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 6 loss(es).
Colorado wins 7 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 12 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 30.

Colorado currently has 1 win(s) against San Diego and 5 loss(es).
Colorado wins 7 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5.
Colorado wins 12 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 30.

Colorado currently has 2 win(s) against San Francisco and 5 loss(es).
Colorado wins 6 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5.
Colorado wins 12 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 30.

Los Angeles currently has 5 win(s) against San Diego and 2 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 6.
Los Angeles loses the series 5 games to 8.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 39.

Los Angeles currently has 2 win(s) against San Francisco and 1 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 4 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 6.
Los Angeles loses the series 6 games to 7.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 39.

San Diego currently has 4 win(s) against San Francisco and 2 loss(es).
San Diego wins 4 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 3.
San Diego wins the series 8 games to 5.
San Diego wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 43.

# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race