San Diego Padres First-Place Elimination Scenario
San Diego must win 14 more games (45 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which San Diego finishes in first place with 45 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Diego        45	117	0.278	0.00
Los Angeles      45	117	0.278	0.00
Colorado         44	118	0.272	1.00
San Francisco    44	118	0.272	1.00
Arizona          44	118	0.272	1.00

Tie breakers
San Diego wins the series with Los Angeles 11 games to 2

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      33	20	109	0.623	0.0
San Diego        31	21	110	0.596	1.5
Arizona          28	24	110	0.538	4.5
San Francisco    22	31	109	0.415	11.0
Colorado         20	34	108	0.370	13.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Arizona currently has 5 win(s) against Colorado and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against Colorado and loses 6.
Arizona loses the series 5 games to 8.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 3 loss(es).
Arizona wins 6 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 4.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Arizona currently has 1 win(s) against San Diego and 1 loss(es).
Arizona wins 10 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 1.
Arizona wins the series 11 games to 2.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Arizona currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 10.
Arizona loses the series 3 games to 10.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 73.

Colorado currently has 2 win(s) against Los Angeles and 2 loss(es).
Colorado wins 5 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 4.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

Colorado currently has 1 win(s) against San Diego and 6 loss(es).
Colorado wins 6 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 0.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 7 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 6.
Colorado wins the series 7 games to 6.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

Los Angeles currently has 2 win(s) against San Diego and 1 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 10.
Los Angeles loses the series 2 games to 11.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

Los Angeles currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 4 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 4 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 2.
Los Angeles wins the series 7 games to 6.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 74.

San Diego currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 3 loss(es).
San Diego wins 3 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 4.
San Diego loses the series 6 games to 7.
San Diego wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 76.

# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race