San Diego Padres First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
San Diego must win 20 more games (31 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which San Diego finishes in first place with 31 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
San Diego        31	131	0.191	0.00
Arizona          31	131	0.191	0.00
Los Angeles      31	131	0.191	0.00
San Francisco    31	131	0.191	0.00
Colorado         30	132	0.185	1.00

Tie breakers
San Diego wins the series with Arizona 7 games to 6
San Diego wins the series with Los Angeles 9 games to 4
San Diego wins the series with San Francisco 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Los Angeles      12	9	141	0.571	0.0
San Diego        11	10	141	0.524	1.0
Arizona          9	11	142	0.450	2.5
San Francisco    9	11	142	0.450	2.5
Colorado         4	15	143	0.211	7.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Arizona currently has 5 win(s) against Colorado and 2 loss(es).
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against Colorado and loses 6.
Arizona loses the series 5 games to 8.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 0 loss(es).
Arizona wins 10 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 3.
Arizona wins the series 10 games to 3.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against San Diego and 0 loss(es).
Arizona wins 6 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 7.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Arizona currently has 0 win(s) against San Francisco and 1 loss(es).
Arizona wins 6 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 6.
Arizona loses the series 6 games to 7.
Arizona wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against Los Angeles and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 8 additional game(s) against Los Angeles and loses 5.
Colorado wins the series 8 games to 5.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against San Diego and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 12 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 1.
Colorado wins the series 12 games to 1.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Colorado currently has 0 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 13.
Colorado loses the series 0 games to 13.
Colorado wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Los Angeles currently has 2 win(s) against San Diego and 3 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 2 additional game(s) against San Diego and loses 6.
Los Angeles loses the series 4 games to 9.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 97.

Los Angeles currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 0 loss(es).
Los Angeles wins 9 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 1.
Los Angeles wins the series 12 games to 1.
Los Angeles wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 97.

San Diego currently has 3 win(s) against San Francisco and 4 loss(es).
San Diego wins 4 additional game(s) against San Francisco and loses 2.
San Diego wins the series 7 games to 6.
San Diego wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 99.

# San Diego Padres' magic number
# San Diego's magic number
# Padres' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race