St. Louis Cardinals First-Place Clinch Scenario

St. Louis's traditional magic number (relative to first-place Chicago) is 11 + 144 - 9 + 1 = 147.
St. Louis's first-place clinch number is 139.
St. Louis must win 139 more games (148 total) to clinch first place.

If St. Louis wins 139 more games, their final win total will be at least 148.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if St. Louis wins 139 of their remaining 143 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to St. Louis' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to St. Louis if St. Louis wins 139 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to StLouis, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to St. Louis	Maximum W
Milwaukee        11	6	145	      13 - 4 = 9	147
Chicago          11	7	144	      13 - 4 = 9	146
Pittsburgh       11	8	143	      13 - 4 = 9	145
Cincinnati       9	9	144	      13 - 4 = 9	144

The table above shows that if St. Louis wins 139 more games (148 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that St. Louis's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 139, consider the following scenario in which St. Louis wins 138 more games (147 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Milwaukee        148	14	0.914	0.00
St. Louis        147	15	0.907	1.00
Cincinnati       124	38	0.765	24.00
Chicago          55	107	0.340	93.00
Pittsburgh       52	110	0.321	96.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Milwaukee        11	6	145	0.647	0.0
Chicago          11	7	144	0.611	0.5
Pittsburgh       11	8	143	0.579	1.0
Cincinnati       9	9	144	0.500	2.5
St. Louis        9	10	143	0.474	3.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 12 additional games against Chicago and loses 1.
  Cincinnati wins the series 12 games to 1

Cincinnati currently has 0 wins against Pittsburgh and 0 losses.
  Cincinnati wins 13 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Cincinnati wins the series 13 games to 0

Milwaukee currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 13 games to 0

Milwaukee currently has 2 wins against Cincinnati and 1 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 10 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 12 games to 1

Milwaukee currently has 0 wins against Pittsburgh and 0 losses.
  Milwaukee wins 13 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  Milwaukee wins the series 13 games to 0

Pittsburgh currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  Pittsburgh wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  Pittsburgh wins the series 13 games to 0

St. Louis currently has 0 wins against Chicago and 0 losses.
  St. Louis wins 13 additional games against Chicago and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 13 games to 0

St. Louis currently has 0 wins against Cincinnati and 0 losses.
  St. Louis wins 13 additional games against Cincinnati and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 13 games to 0

St. Louis currently has 0 wins against Milwaukee and 0 losses.
  St. Louis wins 8 additional games against Milwaukee and loses 5.
  St. Louis wins the series 8 games to 5

St. Louis currently has 0 wins against Pittsburgh and 0 losses.
  St. Louis wins 13 additional games against Pittsburgh and loses 0.
  St. Louis wins the series 13 games to 0

Chicago wins 43 games agains teams outside the division and loses 49.
Cincinnati wins 90 games agains teams outside the division and loses 5.
Milwaukee wins 96 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins 28 games agains teams outside the division and loses 63.
St. Louis wins 91 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# St. Louis Cardinals' magic number
# St. Louis's magic number
# Cardinals' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race