St. Louis Cardinals First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
St. Louis must win 12 more games (62 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which St. Louis finishes in first place with 62 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
St. Louis        62	100	0.383	0.00
Chicago          62	100	0.383	0.00
Pittsburgh       61	101	0.377	1.00
Milwaukee        61	101	0.377	1.00
Cincinnati       61	101	0.377	1.00

Tie breakers
St. Louis wins the series with Chicago 9 games to 4

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Chicago          55	39	68	0.585	0.0
Milwaukee        54	40	68	0.574	1.0
St. Louis        50	45	67	0.526	5.5
Cincinnati       48	47	67	0.505	7.5
Pittsburgh       38	57	67	0.400	17.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Chicago currently has 4 win(s) against Cincinnati and 2 loss(es).
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against Cincinnati and loses 7.
Chicago loses the series 4 games to 9.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Chicago currently has 3 win(s) against Milwaukee and 2 loss(es).
Chicago wins 7 additional game(s) against Milwaukee and loses 1.
Chicago wins the series 10 games to 3.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Chicago currently has 5 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 2 loss(es).
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 6.
Chicago loses the series 5 games to 8.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Chicago currently has 4 win(s) against St. Louis and 3 loss(es).
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 6.
Chicago loses the series 4 games to 9.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Cincinnati currently has 2 win(s) against Milwaukee and 5 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 3 additional game(s) against Milwaukee and loses 3.
Cincinnati loses the series 5 games to 8.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Cincinnati currently has 4 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 2 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 7.
Cincinnati loses the series 4 games to 9.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Cincinnati currently has 3 win(s) against St. Louis and 4 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 3 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 3.
Cincinnati loses the series 6 games to 7.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Milwaukee currently has 4 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 3 loss(es).
Milwaukee wins 0 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 6.
Milwaukee loses the series 4 games to 9.
Milwaukee wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Milwaukee currently has 4 win(s) against St. Louis and 3 loss(es).
Milwaukee wins 3 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 3.
Milwaukee wins the series 7 games to 6.
Milwaukee wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 42.

Pittsburgh currently has 5 win(s) against St. Louis and 4 loss(es).
Pittsburgh wins 4 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 0.
Pittsburgh wins the series 9 games to 4.
Pittsburgh wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 44.

# St. Louis Cardinals' magic number
# St. Louis's magic number
# Cardinals' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race