St. Louis Cardinals First-Place Elimination Scenario
St. Louis must win 23 more games (44 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which St. Louis finishes in first place with 44 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
St. Louis        44	118	0.272	0.00
Milwaukee        43	119	0.265	1.00
Pittsburgh       43	119	0.265	1.00
Cincinnati       42	120	0.259	2.00
Chicago          41	121	0.253	3.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Chicago          24	12	126	0.667	0.0
St. Louis        21	14	127	0.600	2.5
Cincinnati       20	16	126	0.556	4.0
Milwaukee        18	16	128	0.529	5.0
Pittsburgh       19	17	126	0.528	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Chicago currently has 2 win(s) against Cincinnati and 0 loss(es).
Chicago wins 3 additional game(s) against Cincinnati and loses 8.
Chicago loses the series 5 games to 8.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Chicago currently has 0 win(s) against Milwaukee and 0 loss(es).
Chicago wins 2 additional game(s) against Milwaukee and loses 11.
Chicago loses the series 2 games to 11.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Chicago currently has 1 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 2 loss(es).
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 10.
Chicago loses the series 1 games to 12.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Chicago currently has 0 win(s) against St. Louis and 0 loss(es).
Chicago wins 12 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 1.
Chicago wins the series 12 games to 1.
Chicago wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

Cincinnati currently has 0 win(s) against Milwaukee and 0 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 12 additional game(s) against Milwaukee and loses 1.
Cincinnati wins the series 12 games to 1.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Cincinnati currently has 1 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 5 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 7.
Cincinnati loses the series 1 games to 12.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Cincinnati currently has 0 win(s) against St. Louis and 0 loss(es).
Cincinnati wins 2 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 11.
Cincinnati loses the series 2 games to 11.
Cincinnati wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Milwaukee currently has 1 win(s) against Pittsburgh and 2 loss(es).
Milwaukee wins 9 additional game(s) against Pittsburgh and loses 1.
Milwaukee wins the series 10 games to 3.
Milwaukee wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 80.

Milwaukee currently has 0 win(s) against St. Louis and 1 loss(es).
Milwaukee wins 4 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 8.
Milwaukee loses the series 4 games to 9.
Milwaukee wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 80.

Pittsburgh currently has 0 win(s) against St. Louis and 4 loss(es).
Pittsburgh wins 6 additional game(s) against St. Louis and loses 3.
Pittsburgh loses the series 6 games to 7.
Pittsburgh wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 90.

# St. Louis Cardinals' magic number
# St. Louis's magic number
# Cardinals' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race