Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 48 + 79 - 47 + 1 = 81.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 76.
Tampa Bay must win 76 more games (123 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 76 more games, their final win total will be at least 123.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 76 of their remaining 78 games and loses the other 2.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 76 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
New York         48	35	79	       6 - 2 = 4	123 *See tie-breaking notes below.
Toronto          45	38	79	       7 - 2 = 5	119
Boston           41	44	77	       7 - 2 = 5	113
Baltimore        36	47	79	       6 - 2 = 4	111

Tie-breakers:
Tampa Bay has won 3 game(s) against New York and lost 4.
There are 6 games left in the series.
In the scenario above, Tampa Bay wins 3 + 4 = 7 games against New York and loses 4 + 2 = 6.

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 76 more games (123 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 76, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 75 more games (122 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         122	40	0.753	0.00
Tampa Bay        122	40	0.753	0.00
Baltimore        83	79	0.512	39.00
Toronto          81	81	0.500	41.00
Boston           80	82	0.494	42.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the season series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         48	35	79	0.578	0.0
Tampa Bay        47	37	78	0.560	1.5
Toronto          45	38	79	0.542	3.0
Boston           41	44	77	0.482	8.0
Baltimore        36	47	79	0.434	12.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Boston and 4 losses.
  Baltimore wins 5 additional games against Boston and loses 1.
  Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5

Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

New York currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

New York currently has 1 wins against Boston and 5 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 8 games to 5

New York currently has 4 wins against Tampa Bay and 3 losses.
  New York wins 3 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

New York currently has 2 wins against Toronto and 1 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 12 games to 1

Tampa Bay currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 4 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 2 wins against Boston and 4 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 9 games to 4

Tampa Bay currently has 5 wins against Toronto and 1 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1

Toronto currently has 7 wins against Boston and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 0 additional games against Boston and loses 3.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Baltimore wins 35 games agains teams outside the division and loses 18.
Boston wins 35 games agains teams outside the division and loses 19.
New York wins 47 games agains teams outside the division and loses 2.
Tampa Bay wins 52 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 36 games agains teams outside the division and loses 16.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race