TampaBay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

TampaBay's traditional magic number (relative to second-place NYYankees) is 63 + 49 - 66 + 1 = 47.
TampaBay's first-place clinch number is also 47.
TampaBay must win 47 more games (113 total) to clinch first place.

If TampaBay wins 47 more games, their final win total will be at least 113.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if TampaBay wins 47 of their remaining 50 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to TampaBay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to TampaBay if TampaBay wins 47 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to TampaBay	Maximum W
Boston           60	51	51	               0	111
NYYankees        63	50	49	       4 - 3 = 1	111
Toronto          53	60	49	               0	102
Baltimore        54	58	50	       7 - 3 = 4	100

The table above shows that if TampaBay wins 47 more games (113 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that TampaBay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 47, consider the following scenario in which TampaBay wins 46 more games (112 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
NYYankees        112	50	0.691	0.00
TampaBay         112	50	0.691	0.00
Boston           74	88	0.457	38.00
Baltimore        73	89	0.451	39.00
Toronto          63	99	0.389	49.00

Tie breakers
NYYankees wins the season series with TampaBay 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
TampaBay         66	46	50	0.589	0.0
NYYankees        63	50	49	0.558	3.5
Boston           60	51	51	0.541	5.5
Baltimore        54	58	50	0.482	12.0
Toronto          53	60	49	0.469	13.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 4 wins against Boston and 5 losses.
  Baltimore wins 4 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5

Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 4 losses.
  Baltimore wins 6 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4

Boston currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 6 losses.
  Boston wins 4 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 7 games to 6

NYYankees currently has 5 wins against Baltimore and 2 losses.
  NYYankees wins 6 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  NYYankees wins the series 11 games to 2

NYYankees currently has 4 wins against Boston and 5 losses.
  NYYankees wins 4 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  NYYankees wins the series 8 games to 5

NYYankees currently has 3 wins against TampaBay and 6 losses.
  NYYankees wins 4 additional games against TampaBay and loses 0.
  NYYankees wins the series 7 games to 6

NYYankees currently has 4 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  NYYankees wins 6 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  NYYankees wins the series 10 games to 3

TampaBay currently has 3 wins against Baltimore and 3 losses.
  TampaBay wins 7 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  TampaBay wins the series 10 games to 3

TampaBay currently has 5 wins against Boston and 5 losses.
  TampaBay wins 3 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  TampaBay wins the series 8 games to 5

TampaBay currently has 8 wins against Toronto and 2 losses.
  TampaBay wins 3 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  TampaBay wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore wins 9 games agains teams outside the division and loses 18.
Boston wins 10 games agains teams outside the division and loses 26.
NYYankees wins 29 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
TampaBay wins 33 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 10 games agains teams outside the division and loses 20.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# TampaBay Rays' magic number
# TampaBay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race