Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 13 + 143 - 10 + 1 = 147.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 139.
Tampa Bay must win 139 more games (149 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 139 more games, their final win total will be at least 149.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 139 of their remaining 143 games and loses the other 4.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 139 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
Toronto          10	9	143	       9 - 4 = 5	148
Baltimore        12	6	144	      13 - 4 = 9	147
New York         13	6	143	      13 - 4 = 9	147
Boston           10	9	143	      13 - 4 = 9	144

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 139 more games (149 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 139, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 138 more games (148 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          148	14	0.914	0.00
Tampa Bay        148	14	0.914	0.00
Baltimore        101	61	0.623	47.00
Boston           89	73	0.549	59.00
New York         56	106	0.346	92.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the season series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         13	6	143	0.684	0.0
Baltimore        12	6	144	0.667	0.5
Boston           10	9	143	0.526	3.0
Tampa Bay        10	9	143	0.526	3.0
Toronto          10	9	143	0.526	3.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 9 additional games against Boston and loses 1.
  Baltimore wins the series 12 games to 1

Boston currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  New York wins 10 additional games against Baltimore and loses 3.
  New York wins the series 10 games to 3

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 3 wins against New York and 3 losses.
  Toronto wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 1.
  Toronto wins the series 9 games to 4

Toronto currently has 2 wins against Tampa Bay and 2 losses.
  Toronto wins 5 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 4.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Baltimore wins 77 games agains teams outside the division and loses 18.
Boston wins 65 games agains teams outside the division and loses 29.
New York wins 32 games agains teams outside the division and loses 65.
Tampa Bay wins 95 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 101 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race