Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 15 + 137 - 10 + 1 = 143.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 136.
Tampa Bay must win 136 more games (146 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 136 more games, their final win total will be at least 146.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 136 of their remaining 138 games and loses the other 2.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 136 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
New York         15	10	137	       9 - 2 = 7	145
Boston           14	12	136	      10 - 2 = 8	142
Toronto          12	13	137	     13 - 2 = 11	138
Baltimore        9	14	139	     13 - 2 = 11	137

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 136 more games (146 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 136, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 135 more games (145 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         146	16	0.901	0.00
Tampa Bay        145	17	0.895	1.00
Baltimore        94	68	0.580	52.00
Toronto          78	84	0.481	68.00
Boston           75	87	0.463	71.00

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         15	10	137	0.600	0.0
Boston           14	12	136	0.538	1.5
Toronto          12	13	137	0.480	3.0
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	0.417	4.5
Baltimore        9	14	139	0.391	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Baltimore wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3

New York currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 11 games to 2

Tampa Bay currently has 1 wins against New York and 3 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 6 additional games against New York and loses 3.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 7 games to 6

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Toronto and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Boston and 1 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Boston and loses 2.
  Toronto wins the series 10 games to 3

Baltimore wins 68 games agains teams outside the division and loses 28.
Boston wins 59 games agains teams outside the division and loses 35.
New York wins 89 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 93 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 59 games agains teams outside the division and loses 36.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race