Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Tampa Bay's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Baltimore) is 1 + 161 - 1 + 1 = 162.
Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number is 155.
Tampa Bay must win 155 more games (156 total) to clinch first place.

If Tampa Bay wins 155 more games, their final win total will be at least 156.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Tampa Bay wins 155 of their remaining 161 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Tampa Bay' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Tampa Bay if Tampa Bay wins 155 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to TampaBay, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Tampa Bay	Maximum W
Baltimore        1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155
New York         1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155
Toronto          1	0	161	      13 - 6 = 7	155
Boston           0	1	161	      13 - 6 = 7	154

The table above shows that if Tampa Bay wins 155 more games (156 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Tampa Bay's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 155, consider the following scenario in which Tampa Bay wins 154 more games (155 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          155	7	0.957	0.00
Tampa Bay        155	7	0.957	0.00
New York         68	94	0.420	87.00
Baltimore        62	100	0.383	93.00
Boston           14	148	0.086	141.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the season series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        1	0	161	1.000	0.0
New York         1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Tampa Bay        1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Toronto          1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Boston           0	1	161	0.000	1.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 12 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 7 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 6.
  Toronto wins the series 7 games to 6

Baltimore wins 49 games agains teams outside the division and loses 61.
Boston wins 14 games agains teams outside the division and loses 96.
New York wins 41 games agains teams outside the division and loses 68.
Tampa Bay wins 109 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Toronto wins 108 games agains teams outside the division and loses 1.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race