Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Tampa Bay must win 11 more games (58 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Tampa Bay finishes in first place with 58 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Tampa Bay        58	104	0.358	0.00
Boston           58	104	0.358	0.00
Baltimore        57	105	0.352	1.00
Toronto          57	105	0.352	1.00
New York         57	105	0.352	1.00

Tie breakers
Tampa Bay wins the series with Boston 9 games to 4

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         48	36	78	0.571	0.0
Tampa Bay        47	38	77	0.553	1.5
Toronto          46	38	78	0.548	2.0
Boston           42	44	76	0.488	7.0
Baltimore        37	47	78	0.440	11.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 4 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 6.
Baltimore loses the series 3 games to 10.
Baltimore wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 50.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 50.

Baltimore currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 4 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 50.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 50.

Boston currently has 5 win(s) against New York and 1 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 12 games to 1.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 53.

Boston currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 4 games to 9.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 53.

Boston currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 7 loss(es).
Boston wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 53.

New York currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
New York wins the series 10 games to 3.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Toronto and 2 loss(es).
New York wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 6.
New York loses the series 5 games to 8.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

Tampa Bay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 2 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 5.
Tampa Bay wins the series 7 games to 6.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 51.

# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race