Tampa Bay Rays First-Place Elimination Scenario
Tampa Bay must win 21 more games (42 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Tampa Bay finishes in first place with 42 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Tampa Bay        42	120	0.259	0.00
Boston           42	120	0.259	0.00
Toronto          40	122	0.247	2.00
New York         40	122	0.247	2.00
Baltimore        40	122	0.247	2.00

Tie breakers
Tampa Bay wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         23	11	128	0.676	0.0
Tampa Bay        21	12	129	0.636	1.5
Toronto          16	18	128	0.471	7.0
Baltimore        15	19	128	0.441	8.0
Boston           13	21	128	0.382	10.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 1 win(s) against Boston and 2 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 4.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against New York and loses 10.
Baltimore loses the series 0 games to 13.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 13 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 82.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Boston wins 10 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 10 games to 3.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against Toronto and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 9 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 1.
Boston wins the series 10 games to 3.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 7 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
New York wins the series 7 games to 6.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 13.
New York loses the series 0 games to 13.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 85.

Tampa Bay currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 10 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 3.
Tampa Bay wins the series 10 games to 3.
Tampa Bay wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 79.

# Tampa Bay Rays' magic number
# Tampa Bay's magic number
# Rays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race