Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Toronto's traditional magic number (relative to first-place New York) is 15 + 137 - 12 + 1 = 141.
Toronto's first-place clinch number is 134.
Toronto must win 134 more games (146 total) to clinch first place.

If Toronto wins 134 more games, their final win total will be at least 146.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Toronto wins 134 of their remaining 137 games and loses the other 3.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Toronto' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Toronto if Toronto wins 134 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Toronto, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Toronto	Maximum W
Baltimore        9	14	139	       7 - 3 = 4	144
Boston           14	12	136	       9 - 3 = 6	144
New York         15	10	137	     13 - 3 = 10	142
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	     13 - 3 = 10	138

The table above shows that if Toronto wins 134 more games (146 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Toronto's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 134, consider the following scenario in which Toronto wins 133 more games (145 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Baltimore        145	17	0.895	0.00
Toronto          145	17	0.895	0.00
Boston           106	56	0.654	39.00
New York         61	101	0.377	84.00
Tampa Bay        60	102	0.370	85.00

Tie breakers
Baltimore wins the season series with Toronto 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         15	10	137	0.600	0.0
Boston           14	12	136	0.538	1.5
Toronto          12	13	137	0.480	3.0
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	0.417	4.5
Baltimore        9	14	139	0.391	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Baltimore currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Baltimore wins 10 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Baltimore wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore currently has 3 wins against Toronto and 3 losses.
  Baltimore wins 4 additional games against Toronto and loses 3.
  Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6

Boston currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Boston wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 3 wins against Tampa Bay and 1 losses.
  New York wins 4 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 5.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

Tampa Bay currently has 1 wins against Boston and 2 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 7 additional games against Boston and loses 3.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 8 games to 5

Toronto currently has 3 wins against Boston and 1 losses.
  Toronto wins 9 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 12 games to 1

Toronto currently has 0 wins against New York and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against New York and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore wins 96 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Boston wins 76 games agains teams outside the division and loses 18.
New York wins 42 games agains teams outside the division and loses 47.
Tampa Bay wins 38 games agains teams outside the division and loses 55.
Toronto wins 95 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race