Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Clinch Scenario

Toronto's traditional magic number (relative to second-place Baltimore) is 0 + 162 - 0 + 1 = 163.
Toronto's first-place clinch number is 156.
Toronto must win 156 more games (156 total) to clinch first place.

If Toronto wins 156 more games, their final win total will be at least 156.
The table below shows the best case scenario for each of the other teams if Toronto wins 156 of their remaining 162 games and loses the other 6.
For each team, the table shows the current record (number of wins (W) and losses (L)) and the number of games that team has
left to play (GL) in the regular season. Taking the schedule of games left to play into account, the 'Losses to Toronto' column gives the
minimum number of games that each team will lose to Toronto if Toronto wins 156 more games. Assuming that a team wins all of its remaining games except for
the games it loses to Toronto, the resulting maximum number of wins is shown in the 'Maximum W' column.

Team             W	L	GL	Losses to Toronto	Maximum W
Baltimore        0	0	162	      13 - 6 = 7	155
Boston           0	0	162	      13 - 6 = 7	155
New York         0	0	162	      13 - 6 = 7	155
Tampa Bay        0	0	162	      13 - 6 = 7	155

The table above shows that if Toronto wins 156 more games (156 total), then they will finish the season in first place in the division.

To see that Toronto's first-place clinch number cannot be less than 156, consider the following scenario in which Toronto wins 155 more games (155 total) but does not finish in first place:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
New York         155	7	0.957	0.00
Toronto          155	7	0.957	0.00
Tampa Bay        70	92	0.432	85.00
Boston           18	144	0.111	137.00
Baltimore        8	154	0.049	147.00

Tie breakers
New York wins the season series with Toronto 7 games to 6.

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        0	0	162	0.000	0.0
Boston           0	0	162	0.000	0.0
New York         0	0	162	0.000	0.0
Tampa Bay        0	0	162	0.000	0.0
Toronto          0	0	162	0.000	0.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games in the division play out in the scenario:


Boston currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Boston wins 12 additional games against Baltimore and loses 1.
  Boston wins the series 12 games to 1

New York currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  New York wins 12 additional games against Baltimore and loses 1.
  New York wins the series 12 games to 1

New York currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  New York wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  New York wins the series 13 games to 0

New York currently has 0 wins against Toronto and 0 losses.
  New York wins 7 additional games against Toronto and loses 6.
  New York wins the series 7 games to 6

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Tampa Bay currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Tampa Bay wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Tampa Bay wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Baltimore and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Baltimore and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Boston and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Boston and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Toronto currently has 0 wins against Tampa Bay and 0 losses.
  Toronto wins 13 additional games against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
  Toronto wins the series 13 games to 0

Baltimore wins 6 games agains teams outside the division and loses 104.
Boston wins 6 games agains teams outside the division and loses 104.
New York wins 110 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins 44 games agains teams outside the division and loses 66.
Toronto wins 110 games agains teams outside the division and loses 0.

Combining the current standings with the wins and losses from the scenario results in the final standings listed above.
# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race