Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Elimination Scenario
Toronto must win 28 more games (34 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 34 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          34	128	0.210	0.00
Baltimore        34	128	0.210	0.00
Tampa Bay        33	129	0.204	1.00
Boston           33	129	0.204	1.00
New York         32	130	0.198	2.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Baltimore 13 games to 0

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        8	7	147	0.533	0.0
New York         8	7	147	0.533	0.0
Tampa Bay        8	7	147	0.533	0.0
Boston           6	9	147	0.400	2.0
Toronto          6	9	147	0.400	2.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Boston and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 6.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 6.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 11 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 13.
Baltimore loses the series 0 games to 13.
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 6.
Boston wins the series 7 games to 6.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 13.
Boston loses the series 0 games to 13.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 13 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 13 games to 0.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 10.
New York loses the series 0 games to 13.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 12 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 1.
New York wins the series 12 games to 1.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

Tampa Bay currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 13.
Tampa Bay loses the series 0 games to 13.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 98.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race