Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 22 more games (34 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 34 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          34	128	0.210	0.00
Boston           34	128	0.210	0.00
Tampa Bay        34	128	0.210	0.00
Baltimore        34	128	0.210	0.00
New York         34	128	0.210	0.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Baltimore 7 games to 6
Toronto wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6
Toronto wins the series with New York 7 games to 6
Toronto wins the series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         15	10	137	0.600	0.0
Boston           14	12	136	0.538	1.5
Toronto          12	13	137	0.480	3.0
Tampa Bay        10	14	138	0.417	4.5
Baltimore        9	14	139	0.391	5.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 1 win(s) against Boston and 2 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 10 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 11 games to 2.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 96.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against New York and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 96.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 96.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 4.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 96.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 6.
Boston wins the series 7 games to 6.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Boston currently has 2 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 1 loss(es).
Boston wins 8 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
Boston wins the series 10 games to 3.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Boston wins 5 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 4.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 94.

New York currently has 3 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 1 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 9.
New York loses the series 3 games to 10.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 89.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 89.

Tampa Bay currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Tampa Bay loses the series 6 games to 7.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 93.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race