Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Elimination Scenario
Toronto must win 0 more games (94 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 94 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          94	68	0.580	0.00
New York         94	68	0.580	0.00
Boston           89	73	0.549	5.00
Tampa Bay        77	85	0.475	17.00
Baltimore        75	87	0.463	19.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with New York 8 games to 5

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
New York         94	68	0	0.580	0.0
Toronto          94	68	0	0.580	0.0
Boston           89	73	0	0.549	5.0
Tampa Bay        77	85	0	0.475	17.0
Baltimore        75	87	0	0.463	19.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 5 win(s) against Boston and 8 loss(es).
Baltimore and Boston have no remaining games.
Baltimore loses the series 5 games to 8.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 4 win(s) against New York and 9 loss(es).
Baltimore and New York have no remaining games.
Baltimore loses the series 4 games to 9.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 7 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 6 loss(es).
Baltimore and Tampa Bay have no remaining games.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 6 win(s) against Toronto and 7 loss(es).
Baltimore and Toronto have no remaining games.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Boston currently has 9 win(s) against New York and 4 loss(es).
Boston and New York have no remaining games.
Boston wins the series 9 games to 4.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Boston currently has 10 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
Boston and Tampa Bay have no remaining games.
Boston wins the series 10 games to 3.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Boston currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 8 loss(es).
Boston and Toronto have no remaining games.
Boston loses the series 5 games to 8.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

New York currently has 9 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 4 loss(es).
New York and Tampa Bay have no remaining games.
New York wins the series 9 games to 4.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

New York currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 8 loss(es).
New York and Toronto have no remaining games.
New York loses the series 5 games to 8.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Tampa Bay currently has 7 win(s) against Toronto and 6 loss(es).
Tampa Bay and Toronto have no remaining games.
Tampa Bay wins the series 7 games to 6.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race