Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Elimination Scenario
Toronto must win 17 more games (62 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 62 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          62	100	0.383	0.00
NYYankees        62	100	0.383	0.00
Boston           61	101	0.377	1.00
Baltimore        61	101	0.377	1.00
TampaBay         61	101	0.377	1.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with NYYankees 9 games to 4

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
TampaBay         56	37	69	0.602	0.0
NYYankees        53	42	67	0.558	4.0
Boston           45	48	69	0.484	11.0
Toronto          45	50	67	0.474	12.0
Baltimore        45	51	66	0.469	12.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 4.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

Baltimore currently has 2 win(s) against NYYankees and 5 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against NYYankees and loses 5.
Baltimore loses the series 3 games to 10.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against TampaBay and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against TampaBay and loses 1.
Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 4 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

Boston currently has 5 win(s) against NYYankees and 4 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against NYYankees and loses 4.
Boston loses the series 5 games to 8.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 44.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against TampaBay and 5 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against TampaBay and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 8 games to 5.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 44.

Boston currently has 1 win(s) against Toronto and 5 loss(es).
Boston wins 5 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 44.

NYYankees currently has 3 win(s) against TampaBay and 6 loss(es).
NYYankees wins 0 additional game(s) against TampaBay and loses 4.
NYYankees loses the series 3 games to 10.
NYYankees wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 47.

NYYankees currently has 4 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
NYYankees wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 6.
NYYankees loses the series 4 games to 9.
NYYankees wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 47.

TampaBay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
TampaBay wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
TampaBay loses the series 5 games to 8.
TampaBay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 44.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race