Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 19 more games (65 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 65 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          65	97	0.401	0.00
Baltimore        65	97	0.401	0.00
Tampa Bay        65	97	0.401	0.00
Boston           65	97	0.401	0.00
New York         65	97	0.401	0.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Baltimore 10 games to 3
Toronto wins the series with Boston 8 games to 5
Toronto wins the series with New York 7 games to 6
Toronto wins the series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        61	41	60	0.598	0.0
New York         60	44	58	0.577	2.0
Boston           54	47	61	0.535	6.5
Tampa Bay        52	51	59	0.505	9.5
Toronto          46	56	60	0.451	15.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 5 win(s) against Boston and 1 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 4.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 37.

Baltimore currently has 6 win(s) against New York and 4 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against New York and loses 2.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 37.

Baltimore currently has 6 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 1 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 6.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 37.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 3 games to 10.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 37.

Boston currently has 4 win(s) against New York and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 5 additional game(s) against New York and loses 2.
Boston wins the series 9 games to 4.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 32.

Boston currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 6.
Boston loses the series 4 games to 9.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 32.

Boston currently has 4 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 5 games to 8.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 32.

New York currently has 7 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 6 loss(es).
New York and Tampa Bay have no remaining games.
New York wins the series 7 games to 6.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 45.

New York currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 5 loss(es).
New York wins 1 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 45.

Tampa Bay currently has 6 win(s) against Toronto and 4 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 3.
Tampa Bay loses the series 6 games to 7.
Tampa Bay wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 43.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race