Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 9 more games (59 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 59 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          59	103	0.364	0.00
Boston           59	103	0.364	0.00
Baltimore        58	104	0.358	1.00
New York         57	105	0.352	2.00
Tampa Bay        57	105	0.352	2.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          50	38	74	0.568	0.0
New York         48	40	74	0.545	2.0
Tampa Bay        48	40	74	0.545	2.0
Boston           43	45	74	0.489	7.0
Baltimore        38	49	75	0.437	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 4 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 5 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 1.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

Baltimore currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 5 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 49.

Boston currently has 5 win(s) against New York and 1 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 12 games to 1.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 51.

Boston currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 5 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
Boston wins the series 9 games to 4.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 51.

Boston currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 7 loss(es).
Boston wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 51.

New York currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 5 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 1.
New York wins the series 9 games to 4.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 48.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Toronto and 5 loss(es).
New York wins 4 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 48.

Tampa Bay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 4.
Tampa Bay wins the series 8 games to 5.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 48.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race