Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 26 more games (27 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 27 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          27	135	0.167	0.00
Tampa Bay        27	135	0.167	0.00
New York         27	135	0.167	0.00
Baltimore        26	136	0.160	1.00
Boston           26	136	0.160	1.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with New York 7 games to 6
Toronto wins the series with Tampa Bay 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Baltimore        1	0	161	1.000	0.0
New York         1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Tampa Bay        1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Toronto          1	0	161	1.000	0.0
Boston           0	1	161	0.000	1.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 1 win(s) against Boston and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 6.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against New York and loses 13.
Baltimore loses the series 0 games to 13.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 7.
Baltimore loses the series 6 games to 7.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Baltimore currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 13 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 13 games to 0.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against New York and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 6 additional game(s) against New York and loses 7.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 13 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 13 games to 0.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

Boston currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 12.
Boston loses the series 1 games to 12.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 110.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 13.
New York loses the series 0 games to 13.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 109.

New York currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 109.

Tampa Bay currently has 0 win(s) against Toronto and 0 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 6 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 7.
Tampa Bay loses the series 6 games to 7.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 109.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race