Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Elimination Scenario
Toronto must win 0 more games (86 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 86 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          86	76	0.531	0.00
Boston           86	76	0.531	0.00
New York         85	77	0.525	1.00
Baltimore        83	79	0.512	3.00
Tampa Bay        83	79	0.512	3.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with Boston 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          86	62	14	0.581	0.0
New York         83	65	14	0.561	3.0
Boston           81	68	13	0.544	5.5
Tampa Bay        73	75	14	0.493	13.0
Baltimore        69	79	14	0.466	17.0

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 5 win(s) against Boston and 8 loss(es).
Baltimore and Boston have no remaining games.
Baltimore loses the series 5 games to 8.
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 5 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 5 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Baltimore currently has 6 win(s) against Toronto and 6 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 1 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 7 games to 6.
Baltimore wins 3 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 0.

Boston currently has 8 win(s) against New York and 4 loss(es).
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 9 games to 4.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 5.

Boston currently has 8 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
Boston wins the series 8 games to 5.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 5.

Boston currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 7 loss(es).
Boston wins 3 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Boston loses the series 6 games to 7.
Boston wins 1 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 5.

New York currently has 9 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 4 loss(es).
New York and Tampa Bay have no remaining games.
New York wins the series 9 games to 4.
New York wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 4.

New York currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 8 loss(es).
New York and Toronto have no remaining games.
New York loses the series 5 games to 8.
New York wins 2 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 4.

Tampa Bay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 7 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 1.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race