Toronto Blue Jays First-Place Eliminiation Scenario
Toronto must win 8 more games (63 total) to avoid elimination from first place.
Here are the final standings in a scenario in which Toronto finishes in first place with 63 wins:

Team             W	L	PCT	GB
Toronto          63	99	0.389	0.00
New York         63	99	0.389	0.00
Baltimore        62	100	0.383	1.00
Boston           62	100	0.383	1.00
Tampa Bay        62	100	0.383	1.00

Tie breakers
Toronto wins the series with New York 7 games to 6

To construct the scenario, we start with the current standings in the division:
Team             W	L	GL	PCT	GB
Toronto          55	41	66	0.573	0.0
New York         53	43	66	0.552	2.0
Boston           53	45	64	0.541	3.0
Tampa Bay        50	47	65	0.515	5.5
Baltimore        43	52	67	0.453	11.5

Next, we show how the remaining series of games plays out in the scenario:

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Boston and 4 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 6 additional game(s) against Boston and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 9 games to 4.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against New York and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Baltimore wins the series 10 games to 3.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Baltimore currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 4 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 2.
Baltimore wins the series 8 games to 5.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Baltimore currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 3 loss(es).
Baltimore wins 2 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 5.
Baltimore loses the series 5 games to 8.
Baltimore wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 41.

Boston currently has 5 win(s) against New York and 1 loss(es).
Boston wins 7 additional game(s) against New York and loses 0.
Boston wins the series 12 games to 1.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 45.

Boston currently has 8 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 2 loss(es).
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 3.
Boston wins the series 8 games to 5.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 45.

Boston currently has 3 win(s) against Toronto and 7 loss(es).
Boston wins 2 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 1.
Boston loses the series 5 games to 8.
Boston wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 45.

New York currently has 4 win(s) against Tampa Bay and 3 loss(es).
New York wins 6 additional game(s) against Tampa Bay and loses 0.
New York wins the series 10 games to 3.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

New York currently has 2 win(s) against Toronto and 5 loss(es).
New York wins 4 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 2.
New York loses the series 6 games to 7.
New York wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 40.

Tampa Bay currently has 5 win(s) against Toronto and 1 loss(es).
Tampa Bay wins 7 additional game(s) against Toronto and loses 0.
Tampa Bay wins the series 12 games to 1.
Tampa Bay wins 0 additional game(s) against teams outside the division and loses 43.

# Toronto Blue Jays' magic number
# Toronto's magic number
# Blue Jays' magic number
# MLB Playoff Race