(Latonya Morris, James Orr, 2002)
Brinker International is one of the leading trendsetters in the restaurant industry. The company started in 1975 with just the Chili's restaurants. Under the direction of Norman Brinker the company was renamed to Brinker International Inc. The Brinker International family now includes Chili's, Corner Bakery, Cozymel's, Maggiano's, Big Bowl, Eat Zi's, Rockfish, Macaroni Grill, and On The Border. The problem consisted of forecasting sales for Brinker International, more specifically The Corner Bakery.
To obtain a more accurate forecast a time series decomposition model was used. The multiplicative model consisted of four parts: trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular component. All of these components were solved for using historical data, except for the irregular component, which was not computed. The model is designed using excel in a manner that allows employees to enter the data as it develops and update the forecast automatically. Using the trend, seasonal, and cyclical lines we were able to obtain a very accurate estimate of what the sales are going to be for the year 2003. The forecast was slightly limited due to a lack of data. As more data becomes available the model will become more accurate. The sales forecast for 2003 currently stands at $9,926,506.10. This forecast does not take into consideration the increase in revenue due to new stores opening.