Major League Baseball


LA Dodgers Playoff-Clinch Scenarios 9/12/2017

National League Playoff Contender Records 9/12/2017

Team W L Games Left Division
Washington 88 55 19 East
Chicago 77 66 19 Central
St. Louis 75 68 19 Central
Milwaukee 75 69 18 Central
LA Dodgers 92 52 18 West
Arizona 83 61 18 West
Colorado 79 65 18 West

Scenario 1: LA Wins Tonight

Team W L Games Left Division Maximum Win Total
Washington 88 55 19 East 107
Chicago 77 66 19 Central 96
St. Louis 75 68 19 Central 94
Milwaukee 75 69 18 Central 93
LA Dodgers 93 52 17 West 110
Arizona 83 61 18 West 101
Colorado 79 65 18 West 97

To see that LA has clinched a playoff berth in this scenario consider the remaining series between teams in the NL Central.

Remaining Series in the NL Central
Chicago vs. Milwaukee 4 Games Left
Chicago vs. St. Louis 7 Games Left
Milwaukee vs. St. Louis 3 Games Left

Since Milwaukee and St. Louis still have a three-game series left to play, they can't both finish the season with 93 or more wins. Milwaukee can only make it to 93 wins by sweeping their series with Chicago and St. Louis. In that case, Chicago and St. Louis finish the season with at most 92 and 91 wins, respectively. On the other hand if St. Louis makes it to 93 wins, Milwaukee can finish the season with at most 91 wins.

Conclusion: In this scenario the Dodgers clinch a playoff berth by finishing ahead of the second-place teams in the NL East and Central, and being at worst the third-place team in the NL West.

Scenario 2: LA Loses Tonight and Chicago Wins

Team W L Games Left Division Maximum Win Total
Washington 88 55 19 East 107
Chicago 78 66 18 Central 96
St. Louis 75 68 19 Central 94
Milwaukee 75 69 18 Central 93
LA Dodgers 92 53 17 West 109
Arizona 83 61 18 West 101
Colorado 79 65 18 West 97

In this case it's still possible for two teams in the Central division to finish with 92 wins each. For example, if Milwaukee wins all 18 of their remaining games, and Chicago wins all but their four remaining games with Milwaukee, then the two teams will finish the season with 93 and 92 wins, respectively.

Conclusion: In this scenario the Dodgers' playoff-clinch number remains at 1.

Scenario 3: LA and Chicago Lose Tonight

Team W L Games Left Division Maximum Win Total
Washington 88 55 19 East 107
Chicago 77 67 18 Central 95
St. Louis 75 68 19 Central 94
Milwaukee 75 69 18 Central 93
LA Dodgers 92 53 17 West 109
Arizona 83 61 18 West 101
Colorado 79 65 18 West 97

In this case it's still possible for two teams in the Central division to finish with 92 wins each. For example, if Milwaukee wins three of the four games with Chicago (and loses one), and they and Chicago each win all of their other games then both teams will finish the season with 92 wins.

Conclusion: In this scenario the Dodgers' playoff-clinch number remains at 1.

Scenario 4: LA, Chicago, and Milwaukee Lose Tonight

Team W L Games Left Division Maximum Win Total
Washington 88 55 19 East 107
Chicago 77 67 18 Central 95
St. Louis 75 68 19 Central 94
Milwaukee 75 70 17 Central 92
LA Dodgers 92 53 17 West 109
Arizona 83 61 18 West 101
Colorado 79 65 18 West 97

Since Milwaukee and St. Louis still have a three-game series left to play, they can't both finish the season with 92 or more wins. Milwaukee can only make it to 92 wins by sweeping their series with Chicago and St. Louis. In that case Chicago and St. Louis finish the season with at most 91 wins each. If St. Louis makes it to 92 or 93 wins, Chicago and Milwaukee can finish with at most 88 and 89 wins, respectively.

Conclusion: In this scenario the Dodgers clinch a playoff berth by finishing ahead of the second-place teams in the NL East and Central, and being at worst the third-place team in the NL West.

Scenario 5: LA, Chicago, and St. Louis Lose Tonight

Team W L Games Left Division Maximum Win Total
Washington 88 55 19 East 107
Chicago 77 67 18 Central 95
St. Louis 75 69 18 Central 93
Milwaukee 75 69 18 Central 93
LA Dodgers 92 53 17 West 109
Arizona 83 61 18 West 101
Colorado 79 65 18 West 97

In this case it's still possible for two teams in the Central division to finish with 92 wins each as in Scenario 3.

Conclusion: In this scenario the Dodgers' playoff-clinch number remains at 1.

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