icon Current Economic Commentary Project for Economics 5375
Economic and Business Forecasting


Presented below are nine basic components of the U.S. economy. Each basic component is accompanied with graphs of specialized economic series. Please view these economic series and prepare a Current Economic Commentary on the state of the U.S. economy. The Current Economic Commentary should be a one page summary that weighs the specialized economic series and forms an opinion about the current and future states of the economy. The summary is to be submitted in section XI of the following list.

Please read the DISCLAIMER before proceeding.

Visual Components of the Economy

  1. Consumer
    1. Employment Growth
    2. Unemployment Rate
    3. Growth in Personal Income (Nominal and Real)
    4. Consumer Confidence Index (Univ. of Michigan)
    5. Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)
    6. Debt Burden: Ratio, Consumer Installment Credit to Personal Income, percentage
    7. Debt Burden: Percent of Consumer Installment Loans Delinquent 30 Days or Over
    8. Mortage Interest Rates: Nominal and Real
    9. New Home and Existing Home Sales
  2. Business
    1. National Association of Purchasing Managers Index (NAPM)
    2. Manufacturing Orders - Commerce Department
    3. U.S. Industrial Production Index
    4. Auto Sales: Year over Year Growth Rate
    5. Growth in Retail Sales: Year over Year Growth Rate
    6. Inventory to Sales Ratio for U.S. Manufacturing and Trade
    7. Nominal and Real Corporate Bond Rates
    8. Debt Burden: Corporate Interest Expense / Gross Cash Flow Corporate Debt to Equity Ratio
    9. Actual Business Equipment Investment-Commerce Department
    10. Index of Net Business Formations: Commerce Department
    11. F.W. Dodge Construction Contracts
  3. Monetary Policy
    1. Fed Funds Rate and Discount Rate
    2. Taylor's "Suggested" Fed Funds Rate
    3. Growth Rate of M2 Monetary Aggregate
    4. Real Rate of Interest
    5. Most Recent Releases of Federal Open Market Comittee (FOMC) Minutes
    6. Beige Book Report on the 12 Federal Reserve District Regional Economies
  4. Government Sector
    1. Rate of Growth of Government Expenditures (Real and Nominal)
    2. Budget Deficit (Projected)
    3. Cumulative Government Debt / GDP Ratio
    4. Government Interest Expense / GDP Ratio
    5. Percent Growth Rate of Real Per Capita GNP with Current Stage of Presidential Election Cycle
  5. Foreign Trade
    1. Trade Weighted Value of Dollar (Nominal and Real)
    2. U.S. Effective Exchange Rate
    3. Net Exports of Goods and Services
    4. Futures Market Based Estimate of U.S. Exchange Rate
  6. Leading Indicators of the U.S. Economy
    1. Commerce Department's Composite Index of Leading Indicators
    2. Slope of Yield Curve: 10 yr. Treasury - 3 mon. T-Bill
    3. Quality Spread: 6 mo. commercial paper rate - 6 mo. T-Bill rate
    4. Most Current Estimate of Last Quarter's GDP Growth Rate
    5. Average Durations of Recessions and Expansions since 1945
  7. Inflation Indicators
    1. Percentage Change In CPI
    2. Producer Price Index
    3. Capacity Utilization rate
    4. Unit Labor Cost: U.S. Department of Labor
    5. Unit Labor Cost: Department of Commerce
  8. Interest Rate Indicators
    1. Current Yield Curve
    2. Forward Interest Rates Implicit in thee Term Structure
    3. Futures Market Based Estimates of Future Interest Rates
  9. Stock Market Indicators
    1. P/E Ratio for S&P 500
    2. S&P 500 Index
    3. Forecasts of the S&P 500 Index Based on the Futures Market
  10. Forecasting Using Ray C. Fair's Structural Simultaneous Equations Model (Yale University)
  11. Summary Submit

  12. Index of Graphs for printing

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Last updated:May 29, 1997