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Archive for the ‘Forecasting’ Category

Quest Resource: Natural Gas Marketing

October 5th, 2009 No comments

Award Winner: Omega Rho National
Student Project Competition
quest1
Client:
Quest Resource, Inc.
Team:  John Jarvis, Claudia Johnson, Liana Vetter
Faculty advisor: Barr   Year: 2004
Documents: Final report (Word), final presentation (PPT)

Currently, Quest guarantees about 85% of its gas through monthly contracts, while selling the remaining at the daily price. The amount to guarantee per sale point per month is a major decision within Quest. The motivation for Quest to optimize this process is two-fold. First, by paying close attention to past production, optimization can help assure that Quest will rarely produce under their monthly guarantee and will never incur a penalty for that underproduction. Second, through researching the historical relationship between Quest’s contract prices and the corresponding market prices for each month, Quest can better estimate the contract volume that will maximize revenue. Read more…

NASA Production Center Process Improvements

June 5th, 2009 No comments

Client: National Aeronautics and Space  Administration
Team:  Chris Genda, Loan Ngoyen, Valerie Vlahos, John Williams
Faculty advisor: Dr. Richard Barr     Year: 1997
Documents:    Final presentation

The present operations procedures used by the NASA Manufacturing Di­vision has room for improvement in the following areas: information accuracy within the INFISY system and tracking machine downtime, departmental com­munication, job scheduling at each work center, and estimating job cost and completion time. Due to the combined errors and problems mentioned within the Division, several effects are obvious.

The inaccurate use of the INFISY system has led to an incomplete historical data set, which has greatly affected the forecasting of completion times of jobs. This is apparent in the very large negative variances (actual-estimated time). The high percentages of those not logged out on INFISY have led to part mislocation. Job scheduling is diffi­cult without tracking intermediate completion dates. Not monitoring machine down time leads to possible higher repair costs than sometimes purchasing a new machine. Under the current use and application of the INFISY software, job scheduling and forecasting are not optimized as needed. Addressing these issues gradually will improve the production operation. Read more…