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Archive for the ‘Forecasting’ Category

Frito-Lay Out-of-Stock Inventory Modeling Tool

May 15th, 2012 No comments

Client: Frito Laymicrosoft-powerpoint-8-fritolay_emis
Team
: Matt Alfano, Brittany Masi
Faculty Advisor
: Dr. Barr Year: 2010
Documents
: Presentation, Report, Video

The project is to design and create an out-of-stock inventory tool that is user-friendly and able to historically scan data while predicting inventory shortfall at the club/SKU level. More features of this project include determining what Inventory is needed by club/SKU and determine delivery frequency by club. We decided that only these opportunities fell into the scope of our project.

After consolidating all of the available information into one database we removed unnecessary tables to increase the processing speed of analyzing the product “Spy Reports” generated by their current database queries. We analyzed two of the highest-demand product lines that Frito Lay stocks at Sam’s Clubs nationwide. These two products are Smart Mix and Variety Mix. Read more…

Optimizing Sales Force Levels for Gamesa

May 15th, 2012 No comments

Client: Frito Laygamesa-logo-6281d3ca58-seeklogocom
Team: Rodrigo Cantu, Sergio Hueck, Rafael Virzi
Faculty Advisor: Dr. Barr
Year: 2012
Documents: Presentation, Report, Video

Gamesa, a subsidiary of Frito-Lay, is a Mexican Cookie company that sells its product in many different countries, including the United States. Their products, which includes different types of cookies and crackers, are targeted to the Mexican population. The company’s United States sales force consists of 38 representatives in 16 different regions, organized by their different routes to market, location of warehouses, and population density. Today, they dominate the U.s. Hispanic cookie market occupying 50 percent of the market.

The problem we address for Gamesa is: should they should deploy more sales representatives and, if so, where would their optimal locations be? With the current economic recession and the entering of Gamesa’s main competitor, Bimbo, sales have been dropping in the different regions. This resulted in Gamesa asking themselves if they needed a bigger sales force. They also wanted to know what regions could be good to add representatives in the future depending on the migration of the population or the strategy of the competition. Read more…

Cross-Staffing Problem

March 7th, 2012 No comments

Client: Carrollton Concentralogo_concentra1
Team: Daniel Olivares, Beverly Ross, Devin Kyles
Faculty Advisor: Dr. Siems
Year: 2011
Documents: Final Report, Presentation

Concentra presented the problem of cross-staffing some of its employees throughout its centers. The problem addresses a potential decision of staffing methods of which the options were to staff to the market or create a cross-staffing model. These decisions relied upon the variability of patient visits among the centers and the ability to schedule based on future forecasted patient visits. Ultimately, the question was to find if there is an opportunity to staff across all centers or must it be dynamically adjusted based on forecasting by center. A solution to this problem would potentially decrease patient wait times and turnaround times (a patient’s check-in time to checkout time), idle times in which staff members are not performing any duties, and times in which centers experience a heavier traffic flow. Read more…

Optimal Phasing of the Opening of Buildings in an Office Complex

March 7th, 2012 No comments

Client: Texas Plaza, Prof. Peisertxplaza
Faculty advisor: Dr. Barr
Year: 1982
Documents: Final report (PDF)
Appeared in different form as a journal cover article.  R. Peiser and Scot Andrus, Phasing of Income-Producing Real Estate, Interfaces 13:5 (1983) 1-9.

Integer programming techniques were used to determine the order in which to build office buildings and when to put the space on the market for a seven-building, 90-acre, mixed-use real estate project in Texas. The output of the optimization provided development managers with the schedule for opening each building, the amount of space to be leased each year in each building, and the annual cash flows to the owner.

Forecasting Models for Change in the Construction Industry

February 1st, 2012 No comments

construction_hatClient: Austin Commercial
Team: David Walls
Faculty advisor:  Dr. Barr  Year: 2004
Documents: Final report (PDF)

Austin Commercial is a prominent Texas-based construction firm specializing in large-scale projects, including the American Airlines Center, D/FW Airport, and other Dallas landmarks. In recent years, a major challenge has emerged: how to manage the large number of change orders in their construction projects. The focus of this work is to quantify these changes and calculate their impacts on the construction’s cost and schedule. Read more…

Lockheed Martin: Electromagnetic Pulse Modeling

January 31st, 2012 No comments

EMP blast effects

Client: Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control
Team: Stephen Beckert, Brandon Joslin, Pierce, Meier
Faculty Advisor: Dr. Barr
Year: 2010
Documents: Final Report, Presentation

Lockheed Martin presented us with a project more exciting than we could ever imagine: aiding the research into ways to model the effects of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP). EMP is extremely devastating and can be caused by both natural and man-made events. EMP primarily affects electronic devices, rendering them useless or destroyed. Since the United States is heavily dependent on electronic interfaces, we are extremely vulnerable to this effect. In addition to this vulnerability to the EMP effect, the United States has a complex system of connected critical infrastructures that have not been studied as interrelated systems. This presents a major problem, how can one forecast the possible failures of such a massive complex system? Read more…

Financial Product Mix for Capstone Asset Management

October 31st, 2011 No comments

Client: Capstone Asset Management Co.
Team: Mallory Harrison, Natalie Jaroski
Faculty advisor: Dr. Barr   Year: 2010
Documents: Final report (PDF), Presentation (PDF)

Capstone is a privately owned investment advisory firm in Houston, TX that offers privately managed accounts to achieve client’s financial objectives. They currently manage over $3.8 billion in assets for about 3,000 different clients. They provide products and services through three distribution channels: brokers/advisors, institutions/corporations, and high-net-worth individuals. Revenues are generated by marginal product fees associated with assets under management allocated by product.

Capstone has in place a detailed budgeting process but desires to expand the process to include financial modeling to measure profitability by product. Our goal for this project is to develop a model that would calculate existing profitability on assets under management by product. Our second goal is to develop an optimization model that takes into account the revenues and expenses associated with sales of existing products versus the revenues and expenses associated with the development of new products. The final output of the optimization model is to identify the most profitable mix for new product sales. Read more…

Lennox Industries: Attrition Forecasting

October 31st, 2011 No comments

Client: Lennox Industries
Team:  Diana Batten, Maddie Kamp
Faculty Advisor: Dr. Siems
Year: 2011
Documents: Final Report, Presentation

Lennox Industries is a residential and commercial heating and air-conditioning company with a 13-15% market share in about 80 countries. Lennox is unique in that they operate as both the manufacturer and distributor of their products selling directly to their customers, typically contractors.

This project identified correlations between customers’ buying patterns and their attrition, or loss of their business. Based on transaction-level data of 4,500 customers over a three-year period, an early-warning model was developed to signal the potential loss of a customer and enable Lennox to act preemptively. The analytics were based on a ranking procedure based on key indicators and a Markov chain analysis with categorical transition probabilities derived from historical data. With this model encapsulated in spreadsheet form with the ability to customize the analysis geographically and seasonally, the results give Lennox management a new tool to maintain their current customers and evaluate new markets.

Heelys Order Management: A Reassessment

September 27th, 2010 Comments off

heelys-sneakers-mit-der-rolleClient: Heeling Sports Limited
Team: Gustavo Carrere and Marcus Klintmalm
Faculty Advisor:  Dr. Siems
Year: 2005
Documents: Final Report (PDF)

The Heeling Sports Limited is a Dallas-based footwear designer, manufacturer and distributor. The Company’s mission is to generate new and exciting footwear utilizing contemporary and progressive styles with comfort-enhancing performance features. To generate new footwear style HSL will introduce one product per year through acquisition or in-house development.

Extensive interviews and observation lead us to several bottlenecks in the order process. Most often these bottlenecks concerned procedure rather than anything else. There are many simple, no-cost options to optimizing the Heelys order process. Read more…

Frito-Lay, Inc. and Sam’s Club: The Pick N’ Pack Aggregate

October 7th, 2009 No comments

fritolay_samsClient: Frito-Lay, Inc. and Sam’s Club
Team: Christian Edison, Ashley Mills, Stephen Rumpler
Faculty advisor:  Dr. Siems  Year: 2005
Documents: Final report (PDF)

Working with the Frito-Lay Supply Chain Department, our team has found an improved inventory process that will increase in-stock performance at Sam’s Clubs. Sam’s Club demands a 99.8% in-stock performance. Currently, Frito-Lay is not meeting this demand, therefore improvements must be made.

Analyzing Frito-Lay’s current inventory replenishment process, we discovered several problems. Some of these problems included inconsistencies in taking inventory at the clubs, negligence of inventory worksheets, and lack of communication. After further analysis, we discovered that forecasting more accurately would prevent some of these problems. There was a new challenge: finding a method of forecasting the new product line, Pick ‘N Pack. With very little historical sales, it was difficult to forecast sales. Read more…